Surveillance: Fed's Kaplan Advocates For Taking No Action
Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg
3.8 • 1.2K Ratings
🗓️ 3 January 2019
⏱️ 42 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Freya Beamish, Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Asia Economist, says the Chinese economy is much weaker than the official headlines show. Walter Piecyk, BTIG Telecom, Wireless and Communication Equipment Analyst, says Apple's lowering of revenue estimates is a major sign of economic issues in China. Robert Kaplan, Federal Reserve of Dallas President, thinks the Fed should not take any further action on interest rates. Admiral James Stavridis, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, argues that the U.S. has to remain engaged in the Pacific. Asthika Goonerwardene, Bloomberg Intelligence Biotech & Pharma Analyst, says Bristol's bid for Celgene is a financial transaction to buy cash flows.
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | With Bloomberg you get the story behind the story, the story behind the global birth rate, |
| 0:04.7 | behind your EV batteries environmental impact, behind sand. Yeah, sand, you get context. |
| 0:10.8 | And context changes everything. Go to Bloomberg.com to get context. Welcome to the Bloomberg surveillance podcast. I'm Tom Keene. |
| 0:28.0 | Daily, we bring you insight from the best in economics finance investment and international relations find |
| 0:35.4 | Bloomberg surveillance on Apple Podcasts soundcloud bloomer.com and of course on the |
| 0:41.4 | Bloomberg. |
| 0:53.0 | Why don't you get to free of beamus right now on China? Well, let's do that. She joins us from Pantheon Economics. |
| 0:57.0 | Freya, the Apple story looks like a China story. |
| 1:01.0 | Is that the reader cross? Can I read across from Apple into China |
| 1:04.7 | sort of consumer weakness or is the Apple story just idiosyncratic? It's got the |
| 1:09.6 | wrong product or the wrong price point or whatever it is? No, I think this is a pretty kind of macroeconomic story here, although Apple's so big that you can sort of, you can read |
| 1:20.6 | across in the opposite direction as well but in this case actually all |
| 1:24.7 | through last year the headline retail sales year over year prints were coming in a little |
| 1:31.7 | bit quite significantly stronger than what the underlying data was |
| 1:35.5 | telling us and even those headline prints were deteriorating. |
| 1:38.9 | The way they have, the way they publish the data in China you get the underlying levels data and that |
| 1:45.9 | doesn't always match up with what you see flashing up with the year-over-year |
| 1:49.5 | kind of headline prints because supposedly those headlines are adjusted |
| 1:55.0 | for sampling distortions which occur because firms fall in and out of the |
| 1:59.8 | of the sample. So if you have a lot of kind of smaller firms because it only includes the large the is falling, then you get this big drop in the underlying value, the levels of retail |
| 2:16.6 | sales values. |
| 2:17.6 | But you can extrapolate from that if you have that quantity of firms that are falling out of the sample that there is a great deal of underlying weakness that it wasn't really being reported in the in their headline figures there. |
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