S8 Ep881: Elbridge Colby explains that if a denial defense succeeds, the burden of escalation falls on China, which may attempt horizontal (geographic) or vertical (intensity) escalation. Colby notes that limited nuclear use is risky for Beijing as it might cataly

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🗓️ 17 May 2026

⏱️ 8 minutes

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Summary

Elbridge Colby explains that if a denial defense succeeds, the burden of escalation falls on China, which may attempt horizontal (geographic) or vertical (intensity) escalation. Colby notes that limited nuclear use is risky for Beijing as it might catalyze American "righteous might" and vengeance. Conversely, if the denial defense fails, the coalition faces the difficult challenge of mobilizing for a larger conflict to recapture territory. Despite economic concerns, societies are often more resilient than expected. Ultimately, backing down would have catastrophic global implications, fundamentally altering American freedom and prosperity over time. (6/8)
DECEMBER 1951

Transcript

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0:00.0	This is CBSI in the world. I'm John Bouther with Elbridge Colby. His new book is The Strategy of Denial, American Defense in an Age of Great Power conflict. The PLA, theoretically, the supposition, has invaded Taiwan and taken control of Taiwan.
0:24.2	The coalition has not yet dislodged or recaptured or driven back the invasion force.
0:31.8	In other words, the denial defense has failed.
0:35.1	There follows a limited war.
0:37.4	What is to be done? Bridge, what is
0:40.0	horizontal escalation? What is vertical escalation? Horizontal escalation is basically the idea that
0:46.4	instead of contesting the kind of the direct battle that you're thinking about. So think Taiwan here
0:50.8	or an earlier era, I think of, say, Korea in 1950. Instead, you attack your
0:55.5	enemy in some other geographic location or some other area that's not, you know, militarily
1:01.5	connected to the direct theater. So, you know, if we, in the case of Taiwan, if we, let's say,
1:06.5	attack the Chinese in Xinjiang or we attack their base in Djibouti.
1:14.2	Vertical escalation is basically increasing the intensity of the conflict.
1:17.5	So at the highest end, it's the use of nuclear weapons at scale. But it could be, you know, terror bombing or large-scale conventional bombing or attacks designed to impose more costs and increase the intensity of conflict.
1:27.9	The China horizontal escalation choices, from your list, they don't look attracted to me.
1:34.7	Market gains?
1:35.8	Yeah, we got them right now.
1:37.4	We got failures out of China routine.
1:40.0	And people advising don't invest there.
1:42.0	So set that aside, China can push past the first island chain.
1:48.9	Taiwan's in the first island chain.
1:50.9	But again, you're talking about overbodies of water.
1:54.4	And you're talking about the Philippines or into the South Pacific.
	...

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