S8 Ep881: Elbridge Colby argues that the U.S. must prioritize Asia as the primary theater, as China stands a plausible chance of regional hegemony unlike Russia. While maintaining NATO, the U.S. should shift conventional obligations to Europeans, as America cannot
The John Batchelor Show
John Batchelor
4.5 • 2.8K Ratings
🗓️ 17 May 2026
⏱️ 8 minutes
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Summary
Elbridge Colby argues that the U.S. must prioritize Asia as the primary theater, as China stands a plausible chance of regional hegemony unlike Russia. While maintaining NATO, the U.S. should shift conventional obligations to Europeans, as America cannot handle simultaneous major conflicts. Regarding nuclear proliferation, Colby warns that independent arsenals for allies like Australia or Japan are not a panacea for conventional weakness. Instead, a robust conventional defense is preferred to avoid the dilemma of "going nuclear first" or surrendering autonomy to Beijing'sdictate. (8/8)
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | This is CBSI in the world. I'm John Batchel with Elbridge Colby, the author of The Strategy of |
| 0:09.5 | of Denial, American Defense in an Age of Great Power conflict. The aim of strength is peace. |
| 0:15.2 | However, right now, a coalition can be formed in the event of an attack on Taiwan. However, NATO, is NATO part of this |
| 0:26.0 | equation? It doesn't geographically touch upon any of it, but we see now with August, Australia |
| 0:32.3 | of the United Kingdom and the United States as part of a coalition in the Indo-Pacific dealing with China. |
| 0:39.1 | Is NATO to get involved? Is that a factor for China? |
| 0:43.8 | Yeah, it's a factor. I don't think Europe is going to play a particularly significant role |
| 0:48.1 | directly in the military balance in the Pacific. What I think the main role, you know, |
| 0:52.8 | Europe is the secondary theater for us. It's very |
| 0:55.4 | important, but it's distinctly less important than Asia. And furthermore, the chance of a, of another |
| 1:02.8 | state becoming or a state becoming hegemonic in that region is far less. I mean, China is half |
| 1:08.0 | of Asia's GDP. So it stands a very plausible chance of establishing |
| 1:13.1 | a dominant position in the region. Russia is a much smaller fraction. It's not even a largest |
| 1:17.6 | state in the region. I mean, Germany is by GDP. So, you know, the threat is less significant, |
| 1:23.6 | although significant, and the threat is much more limited than so. And we need to focus on Asia |
| 1:28.3 | because we're dealing with a superpower there. So that's really got to be our focus. So we are |
| 1:31.8 | going to have to reduce our exposure. I, you know, I think we should remain in NATO. But I think |
| 1:38.4 | the key will be to reduce our, especially our conventional obligations in Europe and basically shift those to the Europeans, |
| 1:46.7 | which in a sense actually was the vision of NATO from the beginning. |
| 1:49.0 | This was President Eisenhower, you know, vision is actually that SACIRA would be a European and so forth. |
| 1:54.1 | So this is not doing violence to the basic idea. |
| 1:56.5 | And moreover, the Europeans can do this. |
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