I'm John Batchel, Mary Kissel, Executive Vice President Stevenson, Incorporated,

former senior advisor to the Secretary of State many years with the Wall Street Journal editorial page based in Asia.

Escalation. Escalation underway in the Gulf War, the Iran War, the conflict with Hezbollah, a subunit of Iran's IRGC.

Escalation.

They look to history when in an escalatory cycle, one side answers with more and more intense attacks,

you look for history to guide you.

The history I always look to is Christmas, 1916.

Both sides, France and Germany, Britain joining France, were exhausted. Their armies were ready to mutiny, in fact, in the French sense they did, after the bloodletting and Verdun and other battles that had proved to not move the story. Suddenly, there was hope.

Woodrow Wilson, the recently re-elected President of the United States, was going to

enter in as a peacemaker, 1916, and he sent his counselor, Colonel House, to Europe to visit

London and Berlin, those seen as the major decision points, because

France was exhausted. They were ready to go in any direction. Berlin said, yes, let's talk. London said,

no, we will not talk. And therein lies the story of how to stop escalation when the diplomats

get involved.

There's no guarantee that it'll be successful, but it does slow things down.

Two years later, when the war ended, who did they go to to make peace?

Woodrow Wilson.

Mary, a very good evening to you.

Beg pardon for the anecdote of 1916, but I'm looking to state's place somewhere in the

Gulf crisis.

Where does state get involved?

What tools does it have once the escalation levels off?

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