This is John Batchel, conversation with colleagues Sinan Shidi of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies about Turkey in the Iran war.

Turkey is balancing. Turkey is hedging. Turkey is this hand, that hand. And right now, though there have been provocations, missiles fired by Iran toward Turkey, they've been intercepted. There are limits,

but right now the strategy is big thing, and Sennon explains, a little bit is enough. Too much is too

much. They want the regime to survive, and Senan will explain more of this tonight.

I think that's a fair assessment. Turkey is, Turkey's desire is, I think, by my estimation,

one that continues to demand or hope for the continuity, albeit in a weakened form of Iran's present government.

And that's because, for a number of reasons, first of all, regime collapse in Iran would potentially sort of destabilize the region.

Turkey is afraid of migratory inflows towards its border. Turkey shares approximately a 600-kilometer border with Turkey with Iran.

They're worried about essentially the potential for some sort of free, democratic, and

prosperous sort of Iran taken over that has a large amount of public support, simply because I think from their perspective

or the Turkish government's perspective, that could put pressure on Erdogan and his autocratic

governance means, and that might also have spillover effects into motivating Turkish dissidents

and Turkish citizens to essentially rise up against their own government.

So maintaining the IRGC-led government is essentially something that allows Erdogan to sort of continue this momentum of having a country in the region that he can kind of work with.

Turkey and Iran are not allies. But Turkey has relied on

working with Iranian proxies in the region, not least of all Hamas in Gaza. Turkey is a supporter

of Hamas. It is a material enabler of Hamas. And its continuity is something that Aragon would like

because it keeps Israel off balance,

a country which Turkey has very difficult relations with,

and maintaining that status is something that Adon is potentially interested in.

So...