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The John Batchelor Show

S8 Ep381: Gregory Copley on Arctic competition and parallel dynamics in Antarctic waters, analyzing how major powers including Russia, China, and the United States are maneuvering for strategic advantage in polar regions.

The John Batchelor Show

John Batchelor

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4.52.8K Ratings

🗓️ 28 January 2026

⏱️ 5 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Gregory Copley on Arctic competition and parallel dynamics in Antarctic waters, analyzing how major powers including Russia, China, and the United States are maneuvering for strategic advantage in polar regions.
1949 HITCHCOCK AND LAMOUR STORK CLUB

Transcript

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0:00.0

I'm John Bachelor with Gregory Copley, my colleague in the Arctic.

0:20.4

Over the next 70 years,

0:22.8

we're told that the Arctic sea lanes are opening, climate change, and that those sea lanes are

0:29.3

highly valuable into the indefinite future, because the amount of time to get from East Asia to Northern Europe is cut down dramatically.

0:40.0

In addition, there is the security concern, which is why Greenland, which is why Canada, which is why Russia.

0:48.1

And China asserts it is a near Arctic state, which is nonsensible, but powers do it. All right, the Arctic, Gregory.

0:58.4

Is it something that can be secured? Is there ice fields, even if they're breaking up? Is it

1:03.9

something to possess? Or is it going to be like the sea lanes of any of the major oceans, everybody can use them?

1:13.4

Well, theoretically, and what Canada, for example, and Greenland, Denmark support is that

1:19.1

the Northwest Passage across the top of the North American continent would be available for

1:24.9

open shipping. The reality is that much of it comes within the economic zone

1:31.4

and territorial zone of Canada itself.

1:34.3

Yes.

1:35.1

And so this basically is why the United States has, since the Obama administration, been

1:41.9

working to try to cut down Canada's credible domination of that

1:48.6

northwest passage. We have to bear in mind another thing, that is that the solar sunflare

1:57.0

activity or solar activity is essentially looking like giving a window of ice-free passage

2:04.5

across the northwest passage for only about the next 10 to 20 years. So it may not be

2:11.0

into the indefinite future that this is a viable east-west transport route. It could last long. We don't know, but the

2:20.7

sunflare activity is particularly important in opening up the Northwest Passage in the last

2:27.7

few years. The other thing we have to bear in mind is that this is not just about Arctic issues because we have parallel

2:35.8

issues with the Antarctic, which nobody is talking about in the knowledge, though, that the

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