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The John Batchelor Show

S8 Ep318: Trump's Iran Tariff Threat and China Trade Rift. Guest: ALAN TONELSON. President Trump's threat of a 25% tariff on any country trading with Iran significantly impacts China, which values this trade for political and symbolic reasons. China has already fai

The John Batchelor Show

John Batchelor

Books, News, Society & Culture, Arts

4.52.8K Ratings

🗓️ 15 January 2026

⏱️ 8 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Trump's Iran Tariff Threat and China Trade Rift. Guest: ALAN TONELSON. President Trump's threat of a 25% tariff on any country trading with Iran significantly impacts China, which values this trade for political and symbolic reasons. China has already failed to meet its previous trade obligations, including soybean purchases and rare earth export licenses. Europe remains economically vulnerable.
1905 SHANGHAI

Transcript

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0:00.0

I'm John Bachelor, Gordon Chang, at Gordon G. Chang, who joins me with my colleague and co-host,

0:21.3

and we're very pleased to welcome our guide on manufacturing and trade these many years,

0:25.6

Alan Tonneson, who blogs at Reality Check.

0:29.3

We go immediately to a Reuters headline in these last hours that is provocative.

0:34.7

Trump's Iran tariff threat risks reopening China Rift. There's a double

0:43.7

hitter story. Alan, a very good evening to you. Trump's 25% risk that he threw out, I believe

0:53.4

on Monday, anybody trading with Iran is going to get a 25% tariff

0:57.2

is said to have affected or to threaten China.

1:01.6

How do you read this, Alan, not Mr. Trump's remarks, but China getting fussy about its trade with Iran.

1:09.1

Good evening to you.

1:10.4

Hi, John, and hi and hi, Gordon. And certainly

1:13.5

China attaches great importance to its trade with Iran. I think, though, it's more for symbolic

1:22.8

or for political reasons than for economic reasons. Iran does provide China with a marginal extra

1:33.0

supply of oil that it needs, but in the larger China energy picture, it's not all that

1:39.8

great, and I think China can pretty easily surmount that.

1:45.6

Unless for some reason Chinese growth accelerates very significantly, which I don't see

1:50.5

happening at all, I think, again, it's more symbolic and more political because I don't

1:55.9

think, well, it's very clear that China doesn't like to be told what to do.

2:00.9

China doesn't like conditions attached on any of its behavior.

2:08.7

And so I think that this is pretty standard Chinese pushback.

2:13.0

And the real question is what China will actually do if President Trump does go ahead and follow through with the 25% tariff threat.

2:24.3

Gordon, you have a comment or question for Alan.

...

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