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The John Batchelor Show

S8 Ep202: SHOW 12-16-25 1931 EINSTEIN & CHAPLIN Elizabeth Peek analyzes the rise in US unemployment to 4.6%, attributing it partly to increased labor participation rather than economic weakness. She highlights that private sector hiring remains positive while gove

The John Batchelor Show

John Batchelor

News, Books, Society & Culture, Arts

4.52.8K Ratings

🗓️ 17 December 2025

⏱️ 7 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

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  1. Judy Dempsey examines fears that Russia will shift military forces to the NATO border if a Ukraine peace deal is reached. She discusses reported US pressure on Kyiv to surrender the Donbas, noting that both Ukraine and the EU oppose such concessions due to sovereignty concerns and lack of security guarantees.
  2. Judy Dempsey addresses the industrial crisis in Germany, specifically the auto industry's struggle against Chinese electric vehicles. She notes that Chancellor Merz is avoiding necessary pension reforms due to political pressure, while the rise of the AfD and a shifting transatlantic relationship further complicate Germany's economic stability.
  3. Mary Kissel argues that Ukraine cannot surrender the Donbas without ironclad security guarantees, citing past broken agreements like the Budapest Memorandum. She validates Finnish and Baltic fears regarding Russian aggression and questions whether the Trump administration's business-centric approach can effectively manage Vladimir Putin's ideological brutality.
  4. Mary Kissel characterizes China's economy as collapsing under Xi Jinping's mismanagement. She highlights the plight of Jimmy Lai, a 78-year-old British citizen imprisoned in Hong Kong, and urges Western leaders to use economic leverage to demand his release as a prerequisite for any improved relations.
  5. Jonathan Schanzer critiques the slow Australian police response to the Bondi Beach attack, linking the shooters to ISIS training in the Philippines. He warns that the Albanese government's political "virtue signaling" regarding Palestine may have emboldened radicals, while noting Hezbollah is reconstituting its money and weapons pipelines in Lebanon.
  6. Jonathan Schanzer analyzes the "murky" killing of US servicemen in Syria, attributing it to jihadist elements within the government's security forces. He describes the situation in Gaza as a deadlock where Hamas remains armed because no international force, other than the unacceptable option of Turkey, is willing to intervene.
  7. Gregory Copley details how the Bondi Beach attackers trained in the Philippines' insurgent areas. While praising Australian intelligence agencies, he blames the Albanese government for encouraging anti-Israel sentiment, arguing this political stance has given license to radical groups and undermined public safety.
  8. Gregory Copley reflects on the 25-year war on terror, arguing that Western governments have become distracted. He contends that elevating terrorists like Bin Laden to "superpower" status was a strategic error, as the true objective of terrorism is to manipulate political narratives and induce paralysis through fear.
  9. Gregory Copley observes a 2025 shift toward nationalism and decisive leadership, asserting that globalism is declining. He notes that nuclear weapons are becoming "unusable" due to changing military doctrines and warns that Western democracies are sliding toward autocracy, drawing historical parallels to Oliver Cromwell's rise as Lord Protector.
  10. Gregory Copley reports on King Charles III's improving health and his unifying role within the Commonwealth. He contrasts the stability of the constitutional monarchy with the historical chaos of Cromwell's republic, suggesting the Crown remains a vital stabilizing force against political turmoil in the UK and its dominions.
  11. Joseph Sternberg challenges the Trump administration's antagonistic view of the EU, citing polls showing the institution remains popular among Europeans. He argues that US policy should not be based on the expectation of the EU's collapse, noting that the UK's exit was unique to its specific history and not a continental trend.
  12. Joseph Sternberg condemns the imprisonment of British citizen Jimmy Lai in Hong Kong as a failure of UKdiplomacy. He argues that Hong Kong's economic success cannot be separated from its political freedoms, warning that the erosion of the rule of law threatens the territory's viability as a business center.
  13. Joseph Postell discusses the 1983 INS v. Chadha decision, which eliminated the legislative veto. He explains how this ruling stripped Congress of its ability to check the executive branch, transforming a once-dominant legislature into a weak institution unable to reverse administrative decisions on issues like tariffs.
  14. Joseph Postell suggests correcting the Chadha precedent by adopting a view of severability where delegations of power are unconstitutional without the accompanying legislative veto. He notes that the War Powers Resolutionremains a rare exception where Congress still retains a mechanism to reverse executive actions via simple majority.



Transcript

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0:00.0

Good evening. We'll begin today looking at the U.S. unemployment number, the highest in five,

0:08.1

four years since the pandemic, and what it means for the Federal Reserve and for the Trump

0:13.2

administration. Americans vote their pocketbook is a presumption that the Republicans will

0:19.1

lose seats in the midterm election, no drama there, history in the saddle.

0:24.6

The question is, is Mr. Trump listening to the economy or to his theory of tariffs,

0:30.5

and the tariffs are on and off mixed bag, no way to generalize?

0:36.2

It has discouraged certain kinds of American investment.

0:41.2

All that remains to be seen. The numbers indicate a contraction of some kind in the labor market.

0:51.0

No evidence of money costing more. The Federal Reserve is moving towards its 2% call.

0:58.0

A mixed bag.

0:59.8

Immigration remains the story that put Mr. Trump ahead of the Democrats in the election of 24.

1:08.2

And it's still a big story.

1:10.7

No easy call. So I don't. I don't mess with it. I go out of foreign

1:14.7

policy. And Judy Dempsey and Berlin, speaking of the Russian threat, speaking of Germany's determination

1:21.8

to mitigate that threat by having a strong coalition government in the Bundestag, and that means

1:27.8

defeating AFD at the polls come the elections in the new year. It will be a drama.

1:37.0

Chancellor Merch is the right man for the right job, but the AFD is on, as Judy says,

1:43.1

nipping at his heels.

1:45.6

Then a conversation with Mary Kistel about diplomacy and Ukraine, diplomacy and China.

1:52.3

No easy answers.

1:54.1

It's obvious that we're not going to have peace by Christmas.

1:57.8

Not in Ukraine, none of the Middle East, certainly not in East Asia.

...

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