S8 Ep157: Strong Economy and Rate Cuts — Elizabeth Peek — Peek documents that the U.S. economy remains robustly strong, with aggregate consumer spending outpacing inflation rate accumulation, indicating sustained purchasing power and economic vitality. Peek acknowl
The John Batchelor Show
John Batchelor
4.5 • 2.8K Ratings
🗓️ 2 December 2025
⏱️ 6 minutes
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Summary
- Strong Economy and Rate Cuts — Elizabeth Peek — Peek documents that the U.S. economy remains robustly strong, with aggregate consumer spending outpacing inflation rate accumulation, indicating sustained purchasing power and economic vitality. Peek acknowledges that labor market sentiment remains weak despite aggregate employment statistics, reflecting worker anxiety regarding job security and wage growth relative to cost-of-living increases. Peek predicts the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates in December responding to softening employment indicators and deflationary pressures. Peek highlights ongoing uncertainty regarding potential emergency tariff implementation pending Supreme Court constitutional review and validation of executive authority over international trade policy.
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | I'm John Batch with Elizabeth Peake, my good colleague, watching the American economy, |
| 0:10.2 | which means you watch the Federal Reserve, which is undergoing a transformation, |
| 0:14.6 | big construction projects underway. |
| 0:17.4 | Jerome Powell is the chairman. |
| 0:18.9 | They meet again next week. |
| 0:39.4 | And there are expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue to make money cheaper and therefore provide opportunities for markets in the United States to expand again or at least catch up. All of that is well known. There's nothing speculative about this, except for the part, will the Fed move in December? |
| 0:41.2 | Will it move in January? |
| 0:44.0 | The economy appears healthy. If you watch the Atlantic Board, Atlantic, Atlanta City Board, that reports the GDP growth real-time, |
| 0:56.8 | America is doing wonderfully well here at years end, especially in competition with our rivals in Europe and our rivals in China, |
| 1:03.1 | even with the unknowns of the tariff. Liz, is it too early for me to say that the United States |
| 1:10.1 | had a very good year in 2025 |
| 1:11.7 | and that the Trump administration also enjoyed a very good year for the economy? |
| 1:17.3 | Yeah, I think it is reasonable to conclude that. |
| 1:20.7 | Certainly, we're all watching for data points, having been starved of information because of the government shutdown. |
| 1:30.3 | Now everyone's looking, for example, at what happened over Black Friday, Cyber Monday, |
| 1:34.8 | et cetera. And it looks like the spending continued, John. It's not huge, but it is definitely |
| 1:40.4 | up and it's up more than inflation. So we had a real growth in spending. And yeah, |
| 1:45.2 | the Atlanta Fed GDP now number is 3.9. Last quarter we grew 3.8, the quarter before, |
| 1:53.0 | similar kind of number of 3.8 roughly. And, you know, those are all very good numbers. I think |
| 1:59.6 | what you're seeing is pessimism out there. Consumer sentiment is not strong. And that is a function of the job market getting weaker. People don't feel as confident that they can get a new job. And yet they're spending. So it's sort of a conundrum. People talk about the case-shaped economy, the fact that people who have money in the stock market, for example, are doing well, making money in the stock market. |
| 2:25.3 | Some 60% of Americans own stocks either directly or indirectly. |
| 2:29.8 | So that is certainly helping the mood. |
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