S8 Ep127: Escalating Conflict: Hezbollah Strike, Turkish Influence, and Fragile Ceasefires — Jonathan Schanzer — Schanzer discusses the chaotic status of regional ceasefires, highlighting Israel's major strike against Hezbollah's de facto military commander in Beir

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John Batchelor

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🗓️ 26 November 2025

⏱️ 12 minutes

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Summary

Escalating Conflict: Hezbollah Strike, Turkish Influence, and Fragile Ceasefires — Jonathan Schanzer — Schanzer discusses the chaotic status of regional ceasefires, highlighting Israel's major strike against Hezbollah's de facto military commander in Beirut. Iran and Turkey are actively exploiting smuggling routes into Lebanon via Syriato sustain Hezbollah operations. Schanzer addresses the dysfunction of the Lebanese government, the fragility of the Gaza truce agreement, and the complex geopolitical competition involving Russia, Turkey, and external actors competing for influence over the nascent Syrian state.
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Transcript

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0:00.0	This is CBSI in the world.
0:06.9	I'm John Batchel.
0:07.9	I'm John Batchel, joined by Executive Director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracy,
0:11.8	Jonathan Shanzer, to help me understand cease fire and not cease fire.
0:17.8	We started in Lebanon.
0:19.6	John, a very good evening to you. There's been a major strike,
0:22.5	KIA, targeted killing of a Hezbollah senior commander, the senior chief of staff at this point.
0:32.6	Strikingly, it's in southern Beirut, none of this border stuff that we've been watching for weeks and weeks.
0:39.4	And the Israeli strike was very successful.
0:42.7	I see the funeral now,
0:44.2	all tricked up in uniforms
0:47.1	as if they never suffered a defeat,
0:49.6	carrying a coffin with this picture,
0:51.6	the usual ceremony.
0:53.5	However, is there a ceasefire in Lebanon? And what does it
0:57.7	look like? And who's in charge of disarming Hezbollah? As I recall, that's part of the deal.
1:03.9	Good evening to you. Good evening, John. I think the fact remains here is that Israel is carried out
1:08.7	somewhere between 600 and 1,000 strikes in Lebanon
1:12.6	since the ceasefire was declared last year. Of course, that ceasefire came after the elimination
1:19.5	of a number of high-level officials within Hezbollah and the beeper operation followed by
1:25.0	the Wauki-Taki operation. In other words, the Israelis made some
1:29.2	pretty quick work of His Bulla's top leadership. The group has been trying to rearm. It did so
	...

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