#Russia: The tumbling rouble. Michael Bernstam, Hoover Institution.
The John Batchelor Show
John Batchelor
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🗓️ 14 July 2023
⏱️ 9 minutes
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#Russia: The tumbling rouble. Michael Bernstam, Hoover Institution.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-07-12/fall-of-russia-s-ruble-points-to-pain-but-not-collapse?srnd=premium-europe&sref=5g4GmFHo
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| 0:00.0 | This is CBSI in the world. I'm John Batchett, the Russian economy, the rubel, the currency |
| 0:10.6 | of the Russian economy. There is disagreement about the rubel, and I asked for help from |
| 0:17.8 | Michael Bernstom of the Hoover Institution to spend my guide on the Russian economy. |
| 0:22.9 | Because some weeks past, Michael and I had a conversation right after the mutiny or whatever |
| 0:28.1 | it was by Pregosan. And I saw that the rubel was moving extravagantly weaker, and then |
| 0:35.8 | the mystery of the rubel in general over this 500-day plus of the war. Michael, a very good |
| 0:41.4 | evening to you. The number doesn't tell the story. I read from Bloomberg right now an |
| 0:47.5 | assertion by a Bloomberg columnist that what we're looking at is the rubel's fall, but |
| 0:54.0 | it's and pain, but not collapse because of the ingenuity of financial officials. However, |
| 1:00.4 | my memory of the rubel is that it rallied a little after the beginning of the war when |
| 1:06.4 | there was panic, once the panic lifted it rallied. And I remember it being somewhere |
| 1:10.8 | in the 50s or 60s. It's now over 90 and weakening all the time. In addition, there are very |
| 1:19.0 | distinguished voices who regard the Russian economy as on a downward trajectory that |
| 1:24.2 | cannot be reversed and probably won't even be reversed if the Russians negotiate and |
| 1:30.2 | stop the killing. For example, Yale University's Jeffrey Sondinfeld and Stephen Tien insist |
| 1:37.5 | that the Kremlin is testing the resilience by cannibalizing Russia's productive economy |
| 1:42.6 | in order to fund the war. The Hattien writes that Russia is barely breaking even on oil |
| 1:49.2 | exports and suffering from an overall drop in commodity prices, which forces Putin to |
| 1:54.2 | squeeze state companies and olikarks with surprise windfall taxes. You've reported |
| 1:59.3 | it on all this. That's accurate. Does this affect the rubel? Does this weaken the rubel |
| 2:05.9 | how they're cannibalizing? Good evening to you. Good evening to you. The economy is |
| 2:11.5 | an slow down while it's slow. It contracted again in the first quarter of 2020 by 1.8% |
... |
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