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This is John Batchel,

conversation with colleague

Anatole Levin,

the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft,

about the quandary for France.

The government is expected to fall, and then what?

And why? And what does this have to do with Ukraine

or a European Union or promises made at NATO?

Is Anatol Levin to present a no-win situation for President Macron?

Unless, well, something might turn up. More of this tonight.

Macron can write things out because he is the president and, you know, there aren't

new presidential elections until 2027, but if he loses another prime minister, I mean,

he will be a complete lame duck, but also he will have no economic policy. And, you know, if you

can't make these cuts, how on earth is France going to be able to pay for these promises

of virtually doubling military expenditure in order to partly support Ukraine. It's just very difficult to see how this can

possibly work. But, as you say, at the moment, all the odds look as if the government will

fall next week and the French public and the majority of

Parliament will reject cuts to social welfare and other things. And then, you know, France will enter

another circle of fiscal and political hell.

...