Our Fed Conceit
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 2 December 2022
⏱️ 27 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
The markets rallied dramatically on Wednesday when the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, gave a speech at the Brookings Institute essentially confirming the likelihood of a Fed “slowing” its plans for interest rate hikes. Other speeches this year have seen markets fall a thousand points. The direction of market impact is less important to my point than the impact itself: we have markets that are highly susceptible to speeches given by one person. And when I refer to “markets” I do not merely mean the stock market but also the (much larger) bond market, the (similarly-sized) housing market, and the (gigantic) market for currencies.
Of course, the nature of market movement is not so much about a speech, per se, but rather policy expectations that are derived from a given speech. And the response in financial markets to the policy decisions of the Federal Reserve is hardly where it all stops; Fed decisions impact all aspects of the economy. No person lives a life free of impact from the decisions of the Federal Reserve.
Today I want to unpack this a bit more, at least as much as a commentary of this size will let me. I doubt all of this information and perspective will be new to consistent readers of the Dividend Cafe, but I do believe you will find it relevant to your investing life, and more importantly, relevant to how you think about the economic affairs in which we live.
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividing Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:13.1 | Well, hello and welcome to the Dividendin Cafe. |
| 0:16.2 | I am recording from my house in Newport Beach because I am running to the airport when I am done. |
| 0:23.0 | We'll be meeting with some clients this afternoon and then speaking at a conference in San Francisco tomorrow. |
| 0:30.0 | And so in the meantime, I just got done taping for Varney on Fox Business. |
| 0:37.2 | And I'm going to be taping when I'm done |
| 0:38.8 | with this for Wall Street Week with Maria Barthromo, which tapes, which airs on Friday night, |
| 0:45.0 | and I think they air it over the weekend. |
| 0:47.9 | So I'm wrapping these things up and then heading to the airport, And yet I really have enjoyed what Dividend |
| 0:56.6 | Cafe is going to be about here today. The writing and message around the Fed is hardly something |
| 1:05.5 | new for those who listen to or read, watch Dividing Cafe frequently. |
| 1:11.6 | My beliefs are well known about the fact that central banking and monetary policy |
| 1:17.2 | are a significant element of what is now happening in macroeconomics, and I don't say |
| 1:24.3 | that as a good thing. |
| 1:25.3 | I say it as a concerning thing. |
| 1:28.2 | And yet I wanted to just sort of give a kind of high level understanding as to what I think is the heart of the matter with the Fed. |
| 1:36.1 | And then, of course, what that means and ought to mean and needs to mean for investors. |
| 1:42.2 | So I go back to a certain kind of economics 101 with this, that I do believe |
| 1:50.1 | in certain key understandings or first principles being elemental to how one will understand |
| 1:57.1 | economics. And among those, I think there is a sort of antithesis between, and this is really a |
| 2:04.2 | 20th century economic fight that is most certainly continued here in the first 20 plus years of |
| 2:10.5 | this 21st century, between risk takers and central planners. |
... |
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