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The Daily Article

One reason the polls were wrong: Why the answer is so significant for our national future

The Daily Article

The Denison Forum

News, Religion & Spirituality, Christianity, Daily News

4.9576 Ratings

🗓️ 5 November 2020

⏱️ 7 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

THE DAILY ARTICLE FOR NOVEMBER 5, 2020

As Americans await final results from the election, many are asking why the polls were wrong again this year. Today's podcast identifies one explanation and discusses its deep significance for our national future, then we focus on a way we can be the peacemakers our culture desperately needs.

ABOUT THE DENISON FORUM

The Daily Article is a daily biblical commentary on the news of the day by Dr. Jim Denison.

To learn more about the Denison Forum, visit DenisonForum.org or email us at comments@denisonforum.org.

Transcript

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0:00.0

This is the Daily Article podcast, published by the Denison Forum for Culture-Changing Christians.

0:07.8

To receive the Daily article directly to your email inbox each weekday morning, visit

0:12.5

thedailyarticle.com. Now here's today's news, discerned differently.

0:19.5

We are still waiting for the final results from Tuesday's election. As President Trump and former

0:25.4

Vice President Joe Biden, both have pathways to the White House. As states continue to count votes,

0:32.1

legal challenges related to the election loom as well. While we wait, I'd like to address a question many people

0:38.8

are asking. Why were the polls so wrong again? Prior to the election, one poll gave Joe Biden

0:45.5

a 17-point lead in Wisconsin. Yesterday, his lead was 0.6%. Another poll had Mr. Biden with a

0:53.6

five-point margin in Florida and four points ahead in

0:57.0

Ohio. The president won Florida by three points and Ohio by eight. A political science professor notes,

1:04.3

whatever the final result, there appears to have been a broad and systematic error in predicting

1:10.1

the election outcome.

1:11.6

One explanation is social desirability bias, also known as the shy voter theory.

1:17.6

It holds that Trump supporters were less likely to tell pollsters their political preferences.

1:23.6

To the degree that this is true, it betrays something fundamentally wrong about our nation.

1:29.6

According to a recent survey, 62% of Americans say they are afraid to share their political

1:35.4

views with others. Clearly, we have crossed a dangerous line of essential civility.

1:43.7

As I noted my latest website article, our nation is experiencing a season

1:49.0

of deep divisiveness. We are angry not just at candidates we oppose, but at their supporters as well.

1:56.6

In years past, national threats unified us. I remember packed churches in the days following 9-11, and my parents and grandparents' stories

2:05.8

about American patriotism during the Great Depression and two world wars.

2:10.8

When the Japanese attacked us at Pearl Harbor, my father volunteered for the army, a decision

...

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