Welcome to Thoughts on the Market.

I'm Mike Wilson, Chief Investment Officer and Chief U.S. Equity

Strategists for Morgan Stanley.

Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about the

latest trends in the financial marketplace.

It's Monday, September 23rd at 9 a.m. Eastern, so let's get after it.

While there are always macro drivers of the financial markets, it seems like there are more of them

than usual today, and that's creating quite a bit of uncertainty for investors.

At the top of the list, we have trade, the Fed, and the outlook for earnings growth.

And most agree that the outcome of these variables will likely determine the direction of stocks and bonds over the next 6 to 12 months.

Our view for these drivers remains the same with trade no longer escalating but also remaining unresolved.

In short, a somewhat neutral

a slightly negative impact on markets that should weigh on stock prices and

interest rates. On the Fed we look for modest rather than aggressive action

given the recently better than expected economic data led by a resilient consumer and labor market.

With the outcome of trade also weighing heavily on the Fed's thinking,

recent signs that the US and China are more interested in de-escalating the tensions

has kept the Fed in a wait-and-see camp rather than trying to move ahead of it with aggressive policy.

Last week's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points essentially met the minimum expectations priced into markets,

leaving the Fed as another somewhat neutral driver to equity and bond markets in my view.

This leaves us with earnings growth expectations

where I continue to have an out-of-consensus view. For the past year we have been well

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