Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezes, head a public policy and municipal strategy for Morgan Stanley.

Along with my colleagues bring you a variety of perspectives,

I'll be talking about the intersection between U.S. public policy

and financial markets.

It's Wednesday, November 6th at 9 a.m. Easter.

We're one year out from the 2020 U.S. election and one thing's become clear for

investors. You need to start

planning for it today. That's why we just published an early guide to the

2020 election, a collaborative effort with 20 Morgan Stanley research teams that

covers election outcome scenarios, resulting policy paths, and the markets and sectors that are exposed to each outcome.

Let's start the 2020 conversation today with a reality check about why you need a plan.

On election night, the futures market sold off substantially,

but only for a few hours.

Over the next year, the S&P 500 returned about 37%

as the administration presided over a legislative agenda of tax cuts and

deficit expansion. While the medium-term effects of that agenda are far from

settled, the point is this. Reality eventually beats perception in markets.

So for 2020, you can't just assume the winning candidate's promises become law.

You have to game out what a president can get done given the potential makeup of Congress.

We call these plausible policy paths. They're useful

in separating out myth from reality in terms of the risks and benefits facing macro markets

and equity sectors from different election outcomes. We'll be talking a lot about this in the

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