Welcome to thoughts on the market. I'm Michael Zezes, head the public policy

municipal strategy for Morgan Stanley. On this special episode we will hear

from guest host Chetanaya, Morgan Stanley's chief economist,

and get his take on the outlook for global growth and whether a recovery is imminent.

Over the past 15 months, global growth data points have been on a consistent

down trend. So it's only natural to think that this road data points have been on a consistent downtrend.

So it's only natural to think that this cycle cannot be

retrieved and that we will continue to head on this downward path

in the coming months.

However, we see things differently. From a big picture perspective, we think global economic outlook will be influenced by the interplay of two key forces,

Central Bank policy easing and trade tensions.

Now for the first time since second half of 2000, Bank policy easing and trade tensions.

Now for the first time since second half of 2018,

we have both the forces moving in a direction

that would help reverse that downtrend.

Central Bank's policy easing has intensified and trade tensions are ebbing.

Let's take the policy easing first. 20 out of 30 Central Banks we cover are on an easing path.

And more importantly, our global weighted average interest rate measure

will reach a fresh post-crisis low by early 2020. This easing by the Fed and other Central Banks

should, with the lag support consumption and investment growth.

We have seen in past cycles that monetary easing can help drive a recovery with the 4 to 7 quarter lag.

In this cycle, monetary easing, having started in fourth

...