Making Sense of NFL Moves and Free Agency with Eric Eager
The Simple Handicap: Daily NFL Betting Podcast with Adam Chernoff
Adam Chernoff
4.8 • 1.3K Ratings
🗓️ 16 March 2022
⏱️ 45 minutes
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Summary
Eric Eager from PFF is one of the best minds in the NFL industry and is one of my favorite people for simplifying personnel. This is a call I had with him on March 16th to make sense of all the moves so far to put everything into context.
Be sure to follow him @PFF_Eric.
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | from like a collective standpoint at a position that stood out like where do we even start |
| 0:05.0 | with all these moves that have happened from just thinking about it from a betting perspective |
| 0:09.3 | yeah i mean so far to me it's it's not necessarily you know the quarterbacks are going to |
| 0:13.9 | move the odds the most right that that's i think pretty plain and then and then as you know |
| 0:18.7 | and i think you talked about this on your last podcast where |
| 0:21.1 | you know nothing else moves markets in the nfl other than collective injuries right collective |
| 0:27.2 | groups uh you know there's not one individual non quarterback that's going to change anything |
| 0:32.8 | really from an odd standpoint so i think where you have to look is you sort of have to look at, okay, you know, are there regime shifts? |
| 0:41.3 | So I think of like the Seattle Seahawks, you know, they're clearly regime shifting towards a rebuild, right? |
| 0:49.2 | So that might, you know, losing Rust is one thing. |
| 0:52.5 | And I think that that would have a big effect on |
| 0:54.2 | the odds but if they were to have replaced him let's say with like a kirk cousins or you know even like |
| 1:00.0 | a carson wents i don't think that they would be 11 to one uh to win the west like they are right now |
| 1:05.2 | on fan duels so that that you know there's a regime shift there you look at the other side of it |
| 1:10.2 | you know with minnesota for example i just talked about kirk cousins you know, there's a regime shift there. You look at the other side of it, you know, with Minnesota, for example, I just talked about her cousins. |
| 1:13.5 | You know, like there was questions as to whether or not Minnesota would start the rebuild. |
| 1:18.4 | Do what Detroit and Chicago kind of did. |
| 1:21.6 | And, you know, see Aaron Rogers come back to the division and, you know, press into, you know, sort of a rebuild, you know, the way the Detroit did last year and Chicago kind of is this year. |
| 1:33.0 | And instead, they go right back to doing, they literally did the exact same thing they did last year. |
| 1:37.4 | They extended Kirk Cousins and they signed a defensive tackle and a linebacker. |
| 1:41.7 | So, you know, that's a team where, you know, I think, you know, it's crystallizing what their approach is, not necessarily what the results will be, but what the approach is. And then, you know, obviously, you know, with Denver and Los Angeles, I think most of us believed, uh, in the AFC West that those teams would try to give the chiefs a run for their money, but we're now seeing |
| 2:01.1 | it very explicitly. And I think the Chargers are a good example. You know, offshore, you know, a week ago, they were four to one to win the AFC West. And it wasn't just one guy that they signed. They signed four or five guys. And that collectively has brought their odds now. If you look, depending upon where you look, |
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