This is CBS I on the World with John Bachelor.

Here's John Bachelor.

Jordan by my colleague Joseph Sternberg.

He's a member of the editorial board of the Wall Street Journal.

He writes this column in London, political economics.

And we look now at Joe's most recent column identifying three scenarios that could

severely disrupt the intention of everyone to vote on November 5th.

Joe, a very good evening to you.

I found your scenarios not only believable, they might actually be happening right now.

Let us begin with the financial panic, which is what happened in 2008 as I recall that was a

that was a whale of a surprise what would it look like a financial panic in

America good evening to you Joe I mean basically what I'm sketching out here or what are some of the potential

October surprises that we could be looking at and as you point out I think that we have to really

be thinking about the U.S US domestic economy potentially delivering one of those

October surprises because there are still a lot of vulnerabilities out there.

You know, we're about a year and a half on from Silicon Valley Bank and that

sort of fiasco has not been repeated and we're expecting that interest rates are going

to start falling and that will take some of the pressure out of the financial system.

But you still have a lot of vulnerability in the commercial real estate market, which people have been worried about for a very long time, and we don't know exactly where all of that commercial real estate debt is, you know, who might be exposed to it and would be the consequence if you do start seeing an uptick in defaults.

We don't know how precisely markets and everyone else are going to navigate this transition to lower interest rates and also

potentially to a slowing economy. We've seen a bunch of wobbles and markets over the past week

as investors are trying to digest, you know, increasingly poor news.

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