'Lies': Stu Responds to Critics

Predictable with Stu Burguiere

Predictable Media

News, News Commentary, Politics

4.9 • 5.6K Ratings

🗓️ 12 May 2026

⏱️ 47 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

What’s the difference between insider trading and informed trading? Stu responds to the mounting number of lies in the media and politics about prediction markets. And when it comes to prediction markets, is the line a lot blurrier than politicians and the media want to admit? On today’s Predictable with Stu Burguiere, Stu breaks down the growing controversy around campaign staffers, political insiders, and prediction market traders cashing in on information advantages during election season. Is this corruption? Or is this exactly how markets are supposed to work? From the NPR report raising eyebrows in Washington to the Senate quietly moving to ban lawmakers from participating in prediction markets, Stu explains why incentives matter more than headlines — and why markets often reveal the truth long before the media does. Plus: Why prediction markets may actually reward transparency The uncomfortable comparison between Congress and market traders The difference between “having information” and illegal insider trading Why some of the loudest critics of prediction markets may have the most to lose Predictable with Stu Burguiere is a smarter way to follow the news. We break down the biggest stories using prediction markets to show what’s actually likely to happen, not just what people are saying. Understand the incentives. Spot the mispricing. Take a position. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	This episode is brought to you by Expedia and Visit Scotland.
0:04.6	Start your story in Scotland.
0:06.9	Experience the pool of wide, untamed landscapes and fresh cuisine that feels rooted in place.
0:13.6	Discover castles steeped in legend.
0:16.6	And feel the genuine warmth from locals you meet in a place that will stay with you long after you leave.
0:23.2	Start planning your own Scottish holiday.
0:25.7	Today at expeedia.com.uk slash visit Scotland. Welcome to Predictable with Stu. I'm your host, Stubergier, trying to make the world a little bit more predictable for you.
0:55.8	We use prediction markets to go through the news and understand the world a little bit better,
1:00.3	and hopefully profit just a little bit from that information.
1:04.3	That's what we like to do here.
1:05.5	We're not doing it in some illicit way.
1:07.9	That's not what we do here.
1:09.6	That's what everyone in the media thinks is going on at
1:12.3	prediction markets. Go to predictable show.com. Maybe you'll understand a little bit more about it.
1:17.9	If you go to YouTube.com slash at predictable show, that's where this show will live. Also,
1:22.1	let me remind you, we have another great show on called Stu and Dave Do America. If you happen
1:26.0	to be a Stu Does America viewer who are kind of tuning back in after a little bit of a little hiatus we had in between shows.
1:32.5	We've added Dave Landout of the show. I think you're really going to like it. It's Stu and Dave
1:35.7	do America on Blaze TV and YouTube as well. There's a new story out that kind of went viral
1:44.0	because this is what happens with prediction market stories. There's a new story out and that kind of went viral because this is what happens
1:45.3	with prediction market stories. When you have a story of perceived illicit behavior when it comes
1:52.7	to prediction markets, that story gets retweeted by everyone. In this particular case,
	...

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