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Predictable with Stu Burguiere

Prediction Markets are Sending a VERY Different Midterm Signal

Predictable with Stu Burguiere

Predictable Media

News, News Commentary, Politics

4.95.6K Ratings

🗓️ 11 May 2026

⏱️ 55 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

On today’s Predictable with Stu Burguiere, Stu breaks down the redistricting wars erupting across America and explains why the market reaction may already be going too far. Republicans are gaining structural advantages in key House maps, but are traders mispricing it before the dust has even settled? Stu walks through the Virginia court decision he saw coming, the shifting House outlook, and the key price levels where he may look to re-enter Democratic House positions after the recent selloff. Plus, we do a 2028 presidential market draft featuring top market options to be on the lookout for as 2028 chatter continues. Stu explains the difference between candidates who can actually win and candidates whose prices can still surge long before Election Day. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

This episode is brought to you by Expedia and Visit Scotland.

0:04.6

Start your story in Scotland.

0:06.9

Experience the pool of wide, untamed landscapes and fresh cuisine that feels rooted in place.

0:13.6

Discover castles steeped in legend.

0:16.6

And feel the genuine warmth from locals you meet in a place that will stay with you long after you leave.

0:23.2

Start planning your own Scottish holiday.

0:25.7

Today at expeedia.com.uk slash visit Scotland. Welcome to predictable with Stu.

0:49.7

We're sort of celebrating today.

0:51.7

Got some big things out.

0:53.7

For a fun, fun show, there's a lot going on, but we're not going to get to that right

0:58.4

away.

0:58.9

We have a show about redistricting today, which is probably the most boring topic possible, and

1:06.6

we've done multiple redistricting shows.

1:08.7

Tort reform might be worse.

1:10.6

That's probably the only thing.

1:12.1

I will say, though, we appreciate you tuning in and trying to understand this is why we're making

1:16.9

it fun, because I've got, how does this thing open? Oh, there it goes. Now I've got it all over the

1:20.5

place. Um, predictable show.com, by the way, go there and subscribe. We'll give you all the details

1:25.4

of all the markets that you should be getting in touch with and hopefully profiting from. But we're celebrating today. We're not

1:32.7

celebrating redistricting. Redistricting can be good or it can be bad. But what we're celebrating is

1:38.4

that I actually did something for once, that I never do. I'm never capable of doing this one thing, and that's why we're

1:45.0

celebrating today. Now, back in, I think it was February, I want you to just understand what

...

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