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This is Scientific American's 60-second science. I'm Christopher Ndalata. Got a minute?

It's been a light year for tornadoes in the U.S., just a few dozen so far.

By this time in 2011, a notoriously deadly tornado year, there had already been more than 120 twisters.

So why the variability?

Well, for decades, scientists have hypothesized that tornado

frequency may be related to the fluctuation of sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific,

known as El Niño and La Niña. But the link wasn't clear in the peak springtime tornado season.

Because observations of tornadoes in hail tend to be most prevalent

where people can see them, meaning the data isn't that comprehensive. So researchers took a step

back, looking instead at the basic ingredients of tornadoes in hail, factors like wind shear,

humidity, and temperature. During Laninia, they indeed saw a boost in the conditions that breed

springtime twisters and hail in the southeastern U.S. In El Nino years, they saw the opposite.

The findings appear in the journal Nature Geoscience. Study author John Allen, a climatologist

at the Earth Institute at Columbia University, says the data might be used to create yearly tornado forecasts, like this one.

So the forecast for this spring is a 60% chance of being around about normal

because we've got a relatively weak El Nino pattern,

which tends to suppress a little bit.

...