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Naval

It's Easy to Extrapolate How Things Will Get Worse

Naval

Naval Ravikant

Business, Technology

4.82.4K Ratings

🗓️ 14 May 2021

⏱️ 2 minutes

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Transcript http://nav.al/extrapolate

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0:00.0

A lot of the theories as to why we're

0:01.7

imminently going to create an AGI are based

0:04.0

on a naive extrapolation of computational power.

0:07.2

It's almost, we'll do the induction

0:08.9

of more and more computational power.

0:10.5

And AI has already gotten good at vision

0:12.9

and beating us at chess and at video games.

0:15.2

So therefore, it's going to start thinking soon.

0:17.3

Another offshoot that I want to discuss

0:18.9

is this idea that humans are this resource consumers

0:22.3

on the earth.

0:22.8

And we're eating up all the earth's resources.

0:24.8

So having more humans on the earth is a bad idea,

0:27.3

whereas if you believe that knowledge comes through creativity,

0:30.3

then any child born tomorrow could be the next Einstein

0:33.4

or the next Feynman and discover something

0:35.3

that will change the world forever

0:36.8

with creativity that has non-linear outputs and effects.

0:40.4

But at the moment, we're very concerned about the pollution

0:43.5

or the loss of certain species.

0:44.9

And these are legitimate concerns for some people,

0:46.9

but it should never be at the expense of the long-term vision

...

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