Is Time on China's Side? Beijing's Taiwan Calculus and the Balance of Power

War on the Rocks

News, Politics

4.6 • 1.1K Ratings

🗓️ 4 June 2026

⏱️ 51 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

When is the risk of war the highest? And what should the United States be doing about it? One of the most important but underappreciated questions in international politics is how states think about the future balance of power. Countries that believe their position is improving often choose patience. Those who fear their position is deteriorating may feel pressure to act before their advantages disappear. In this episode, Ryan is joined by Dean Cheng, Mira Rapp-Hooper, and Amanda Hsiao to explore how Chinese leaders may be thinking about time, power, and Taiwan.

This episode is sponsored by Kibu, which ensures you always know who's on the other end of every conversation, wherever it happens. Learn more about Kibu at warontherocks.com/kibu

Transcript

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0:00.0	You are listening to the War on the Rocks podcast on Strategy, Defense, and Foreign Affairs.
0:14.9	My name is Ryan Evans. I'm the founder of War on the Rocks. This episode is brought to you by our friends at Kibu.
0:20.2	Deep fakes and AIN imperson-N-Personation are
0:21.9	changing the identity attack landscape. For those of you coordinating across sensitive domains,
0:26.4	like perhaps some of you, dear listeners, Kibu keeps critical communications secure and verifies
0:31.0	the users behind approvals and actions, establishing trust, where mission decisions happen.
0:36.1	Learn more at War on the Rocks.com slash kibu. That's
0:38.8	K-I-B-U. I'm fascinated by this idea of whether countries think time is on their side and what that
0:45.4	then means. Throughout history, states have made some of their most consequential decisions
0:50.3	based not simply on the balance of power, but on their perception of where that balance
0:54.5	is headed. If leaders believe tomorrow will be better than today, they can afford patience,
0:59.5	but if they believe tomorrow will be worse than the temptation to act today can become overwhelming.
1:05.1	And this brings us, of course, to Taiwan. One of the most important questions in international
1:10.2	politics today is not simply whether China wants to take Taiwan. They of the most important questions in international politics today is not simply
1:11.7	whether China wants to take Taiwan. They of course do. They describe this as wanting to reunify
1:16.5	with Taiwan, even though Taiwan has never been a part of China. It's whether Chinese leaders
1:21.0	believe the future is making that objective easier or harder to achieve. To help me sort through
1:26.6	these questions, I was pleased to welcome three
1:29.6	friends on the show, Dean Chang, Mirab Hooper, and Amanda Schau. Dean is one of Washington's
1:35.3	longest serving interpreters of Chinese military power. He's a senior fellow at the Potomac Institute
1:40.0	and a former Heritage Foundation expert. Mirroap Hooper is one of the leading architects and analysts
1:45.1	of U.S. strategy in the Indo-Pacific. She's a former senior director for East Asia and Oceania at the
	...

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