meta_pixel
Tapesearch Logo
Log in
FiveThirtyEight Politics

Is Donald Trump The Inevitable GOP Nominee?

FiveThirtyEight Politics

ABC News

News, Politics

4.620.6K Ratings

🗓️ 6 September 2023

⏱️ 55 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Now that we are on the other side of Labor Day and summer is subsiding, this is — as tradition goes — when focus on political campaigns really begins to heat up. The off-year elections this November will get some attention, but the main attraction is still the 2024 Republican presidential primary. In this installment of the podcast, we ask a question we will undoubtedly return to in the four months until the Iowa caucuses: Is Donald Trump’s nomination inevitable? And if not inevitable, how can we place the likelihood he wins the GOP primary in historical context? We also have partial results from two special primary elections and we debate “good or bad use of polling” for a classic and controversial topic: internal polls. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

What does G stand for?

0:02.0

George.

0:02.8

George Elliott Morris.

0:04.8

Yeah, I kind of thought this was common knowledge.

0:06.6

He's named after George Elliott and yet doesn't spell this.

0:09.0

I'm not named after George Elliott. That's the sad part.

0:12.5

It's just a happy coincidence for my family.

0:22.8

Hello and welcome to the 530 Politics Podcast.

0:25.6

I'm Gaelin Druke and also welcome to official campaign season.

0:30.7

Now that we're on the other side of Labor Day and summer plans and distractions are subsiding,

0:35.9

as tradition goes, this is when focus on political campaigns really begins to heat up.

0:42.0

The elections this November, like a ballot measure on abortion in Ohio,

0:46.1

will get some attention, but the main attraction is still the Republican presidential primary.

0:51.7

So today, we're going to ask a fundamental question for the four months between

0:55.5

now and the Iowa caucuses. Is Donald Trump's nomination inevitable?

1:00.6

And if not inevitable, how can we place the likelihood that he wins the Republican primary

1:05.8

in historical context? Also, we have partial results from two special primary elections,

1:11.3

from Tuesday, one in a solidly read congressional seat in Utah,

1:15.6

and the other in a solidly blue congressional seat in Rhode Island.

1:19.7

The races highlighted some of the internal divisions within the parties,

1:23.2

and the winners are all but certain to head to Congress.

1:26.4

And we also have a good or bad use of polling example on a classic

...

Please login to see the full transcript.

Disclaimer: The podcast and artwork embedded on this page are from ABC News, and are the property of its owner and not affiliated with or endorsed by Tapesearch.

Generated transcripts are the property of ABC News and are distributed freely under the Fair Use doctrine. Transcripts generated by Tapesearch are not guaranteed to be accurate.

Copyright © Tapesearch 2026.