Is Donald Trump The Inevitable GOP Nominee?
FiveThirtyEight Politics
ABC News
4.6 • 20.6K Ratings
🗓️ 6 September 2023
⏱️ 55 minutes
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| 0:00.0 | What does G stand for? |
| 0:02.0 | George. |
| 0:02.8 | George Elliott Morris. |
| 0:04.8 | Yeah, I kind of thought this was common knowledge. |
| 0:06.6 | He's named after George Elliott and yet doesn't spell this. |
| 0:09.0 | I'm not named after George Elliott. That's the sad part. |
| 0:12.5 | It's just a happy coincidence for my family. |
| 0:22.8 | Hello and welcome to the 530 Politics Podcast. |
| 0:25.6 | I'm Gaelin Druke and also welcome to official campaign season. |
| 0:30.7 | Now that we're on the other side of Labor Day and summer plans and distractions are subsiding, |
| 0:35.9 | as tradition goes, this is when focus on political campaigns really begins to heat up. |
| 0:42.0 | The elections this November, like a ballot measure on abortion in Ohio, |
| 0:46.1 | will get some attention, but the main attraction is still the Republican presidential primary. |
| 0:51.7 | So today, we're going to ask a fundamental question for the four months between |
| 0:55.5 | now and the Iowa caucuses. Is Donald Trump's nomination inevitable? |
| 1:00.6 | And if not inevitable, how can we place the likelihood that he wins the Republican primary |
| 1:05.8 | in historical context? Also, we have partial results from two special primary elections, |
| 1:11.3 | from Tuesday, one in a solidly read congressional seat in Utah, |
| 1:15.6 | and the other in a solidly blue congressional seat in Rhode Island. |
| 1:19.7 | The races highlighted some of the internal divisions within the parties, |
| 1:23.2 | and the winners are all but certain to head to Congress. |
| 1:26.4 | And we also have a good or bad use of polling example on a classic |
... |
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