Welcome to the Mona Charrin Show, delighted you could join us today.

My guest this week is Dave Wasserman, who is an editor at the Cook Political Report and an expert on the House of Representatives and redistricting, which is highly relevant at this moment.

So, Dave, thank you so much. Appreciate your being here. Thanks for having me,

Mona. It's an honor. Earlier this month, you had a piece at the Cook Political Report,

comparing the 2018 moment and political environment to 2026.

And I really, I found it very interesting.

I want to get into it because there's been a lot of talk lately.

I hear it all the time where people are just saying, well, there's going to be a huge blue wave in 2026.

And it's just assumed that that's going to happen because of the election

results in 2025, which are quite dramatic, and because there's so much dissatisfaction with Trump,

and frankly because some people are, myself included, very much hoping for that outcome.

But it may not be quite so simple this time.

And you spelled it out.

So 2018, Democrats picked up 41 seats.

Do you, the overall picture, Big View, do you think that's a realistic ambition in

2026, something like that number?

No, it's not, because Democrats are starting out from a much higher floor than they did in

2018.

So Democrats are effectively at 215 House seats, which means they only need three to get the majority.

They started out at 194 in 2018.

And so, you know, a 20-seat gain would get Democrats to the same outcome in terms of seats

that the 41-seat gain got them in 2018.

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