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Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Daily Briefing – August 21, 2020 – W-Shaped Recession Isn’t Off the Table: Raoul Pal

Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Real Vision

Business News, News, Investing, Business

4.11.1K Ratings

🗓️ 21 August 2020

⏱️ 45 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal is joined by senior editor Ash Bennington to reflect on the future of markets at this unique juncture. Raoul begins by giving Ash a glimpse of how his “unfolding” thesis has evolved, particularly with regard to the dollar. The discussion of currencies naturally leads Raoul and Ash to talk about the ongoing meltdown of the Turkish Lira (TRY). Raoul explains the correlation between Bitcoin and the TRY and explores whether it’s a sign of capital flight by Turkish investors. After a brief detour into New York City’s woes, Raoul and Ash consider how this consumer-led recession is widening the divide between skilled and unskilled workers, as well as between the rich and the poor. They then discuss Joe Biden’s recent nomination, the upcoming presidential election, and the importance of evaluating markets in a non-partisan way. In the intro, Jack Farley notes a stark contrast in the PMI data between Europe and the U.S. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

It's Friday, August 21st, 2020, just after market closed in New York. This is the Real Vision Daily Briefing.

0:14.3

I'm Ash Bennington in New York joined shortly by our CEO and co-founder, Ralpow.

0:20.1

But first, Jack Farley with the day's stories.

0:22.8

Thanks, Ash.

0:23.9

The European Recovery is losing steam.

0:26.3

That's according to the PMI surveys released today.

0:29.1

The market composite reading for the Eurozone came in at 51.6, technically indicating expansion, but this figure

0:35.3

was lower than not just the 45.9 reading in July, but from the 55 flat reading that

0:41.5

economists and policy makers were expecting. the manufacturing PMI reading was robust. In France the manufacturing survey stood at 49 flat. That's right, the French manufacturing sector is officially in contraction.

0:59.0

This news hit the euro hard today, which sank over 60 bips against the dollar. In the US, the

1:05.1

indicators were much better. The market composite PMI came in at a robust 54.7,

1:10.4

supported by a dominant services reading of 54.8.

1:14.0

But the headline figure that's really turning heads today is existing home sales, which came in at 5.86 million

1:20.0

for the month of July, a monthly growth of a staggering 24.7%.

1:24.8

And it's not as if these properties are being liquidated in a fire sale.

1:28.8

No, quite the opposite.

1:29.9

Prices have jumped 8.5% from a year earlier.

1:33.4

So based on these readings,

1:35.1

there's a stark contrast between the two continents.

1:37.5

While Europe was hit with a wake-up call today,

1:40.4

it looks like the American Dream has yet again bought itself more time.

1:44.5

This surge in housing sales likely has two main drivers.

...

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