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Real Vision: Finance & Investing

The Interview -w/ Marko Papic and Mike Green -- The Next Decade for Geopolitics and Markets

Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Real Vision

Business News, News, Investing, Business

4.11.1K Ratings

🗓️ 22 August 2020

⏱️ 73 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

We can all remember when geopolitical tensions and trade wars were the most important headlines seeming to move global markets up or down depending upon their tenor, but recently the global pandemic and the associated policy responses have brought the focus home with all eyes squarely on domestic fiscal policy. In this interview with Mike Green of Logica Capital Advisors, Marko Papic, partner and chief strategist at Clocktower Group, looks forward at the coming decade of the 20's and explores the growing importance of government consumption and investment to GDP, the countries and assets that will emerge as winners and losers from the rewiring of the global economy, and why the cold war is a poor analogy for U.S. relations with China. As well, they discuss why news of the European Union’s death has been greatly exaggerated and much more. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

Mike Green. I'm here remotely for Real Vision and I'm reaching out to one of my friends down in Southern California.

0:17.0

Marco Papic, we have not spoken in a couple of months and have not been on camera in a while and so the last time you came on to

0:26.2

real vision people loved it it was fantastic to see a young smart guy come in and

0:30.3

talk geopolitics and present them in a way that I think challenged the way a lot of people were thinking about it.

0:36.0

It's been over a year actually since we had you on Real Vision.

0:40.0

You were right that the US hit a China trade deal when you and I were discussing it

0:45.6

but so much has changed now and so what's top of mind for you right now what

0:49.6

do you most want to focus on what are you spending most of your time on?

0:54.0

Trying to get the markets right obviously.

0:58.0

Well other than the impossible what are you attempting to do?

1:00.0

Yeah, like I think you know there's so many things going on geopolitically, but I think actually this decade is going to really be about domestic politics, about domestic focus, not just in the U or Europe, but also China everywhere else.

1:16.2

I think we're dealing with the consequences of a pretty disappointing cycle where growth has been very low subdued

1:25.7

secular stagnation and now that's all been compounded by the COVID-19 you you know, pandemic. So really I would say I'm spending more time

1:37.3

thinking about how domestic politics has changed and how that's influencing the

1:42.1

markets.

1:43.2

You know, it's interesting that you highlight the domestic dynamic

1:46.1

is one of the things that I've struggled with

1:47.7

is what I consider to be the relatively lazy narrative

1:50.1

that the global financial crisis looked like the Great Depression, that it was, you know, the dynamics of the Great Depression.

1:56.8

Just never made any sense to me in terms of thinking about other than it was, you know, the biggest financial crisis, the highest levels of unemployment,

2:04.7

etc that we've seen in the United States.

2:07.2

We really didn't carry much of the characteristics of the Great Depression, right?

...

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