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Azeem Azhar's Exponential View

China’s catching up to US AI… Here’s why it won’t matter

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View

EPIIPLUS 1 Ltd / Azeem Azhar

Openai, Intelligence, It, Society, Technology, Review, Ai, Investing, Science, Economy, Business, Artificial Intelligence, Automation, Robots, Exponential, Future, Tech News, Work, Government, Exponential View, Economics, News, Gpt, Azeem Azhar

51.1K Ratings

🗓️ 14 May 2025

⏱️ 49 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Lennart Heim, a researcher and information scientist at RAND Corporation, joins Azeem Azhar to unpack a provocative claim: China is catching up with US AI capabilities, but it doesn't matter.

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

We are really lucky to be joined by Leonard Heim. He said China is catching up with the US in AI

0:05.0

capabilities and that it didn't matter. What's America's big advantage? Having eight times

0:10.6

more of the resource, which is the most important. Let's start on why compute matters and what it

0:15.9

drives. I think it's kind of to say computers like the currency of AI. Every time it's being produced

0:20.3

requires computing power. If you have less compute, you've got less AI workers. And population

0:24.4

size is pretty important for economic growth. There is this question about a world where compute

0:29.3

resources are highly concentrated. Typically in political systems, we don't like concentration

0:34.3

of power. Let's look at the status quo. I think like 60 to 70% of all

0:37.7

supercomputers are in the US. I'm not an anti-trans lawyer, but I think this is at least something

0:41.8

one should look into. This also explains in a sense why the EU and why India and also the UAE

0:48.4

are pushing for their own compute infrastructure. So this sense of this concentration risk is really

0:54.1

being noticed

0:55.0

increasingly over the last five years. How do you imagine it plays out? I don't think the plan

0:59.7

is like every country is going to like redevelop the whole tech stack and come up a down solution.

1:04.2

Again, maybe I'm a little bit too much kumbaya. It would be nice if we can just get together

1:08.2

and just say like you're the standards, here're sort of the democratic world is doing AI.

1:18.8

We are really lucky to be joined by Lenart Heim. He is a researcher and information scientist at Rand,

1:25.7

the OG of think tanks. He's been an advisor of E. Pop, which is an

1:30.0

AI research group, which readers of exponential view know that we rather like. I have been following

1:36.4

his work for a long time, and he recently wrote an essay on the China Talk substack,

1:43.1

arguing two things. He said China is catching up with the US

1:46.9

in AI capabilities and that it didn't matter. So that is something to talk about. Let's get into

...

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