Welcome to Thoughts in the Market.

I'm Andrew Sheets, Chief Cross Asset Strategy

for Morgan Stanley.

And I'm Robin Sheen, Chief China Economist for Morgan Stanley.

And on this special episode of Thoughts on the market, we'll be discussing the 2021

outlook for China's economy and how that outlook could affect markets.

It's Tuesday, December 1st at 1230 in London.

And 830 PM in Hong Kong.

Robin, let's start with your outlook for China's economy.

What do we think growth could be next year in China?

And where do you think that puts us relative to consensus?

The key really comes down to what's going to drive China's next leg of recovery.

This year is largely the manufacturing sector because they normalized the factories, this exports capacity ahead of other economies.

But next year, with the global economy on track to resume its pre-Kovid trajectory, the largely relying on is domestic demand.

So what's different between our view on China's growth

and the consensus lies in our assessment

of private sector risk appetite? We think China is moving to a more

sustaining phase of the recovery driven by the private consumption which could

rebound sharply with the income growth, job market recovery, and the unwinding of excess savings,

plus the manufacturing cap-packs, which could finally recover after a multi-year dawn.

On the contrary, I think the consensus is more focused on

the impact of potential tightening from China

...