CC: Alex Vatanka – How has the 12 Day War Changed Iran?

CONFLICTED

Message Heard

History, Religion & Spirituality

4.7 • 1.5K Ratings

🗓️ 8 October 2025

⏱️ 22 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

This week on Conflicted, host Thomas Small is joined by Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute and a leading scholar of Iranian domestic and foreign policy. Together, they explore the profound impact of the recent 12-Day War between Iran, Israel, and the United States on the Islamic Republic. As an Iranian who has studied the regime for decades, Alex offers a vital look into the power struggles between revolutionary ideology and Iranian nationalism that are now at play in Tehran. Thomas and Alex discuss the main events of the war, the strategic decisions made by all sides, and the unexpected conclusion that has left Iran in a precarious position. They delve into how the conflict's strategic and economic fallout - from widespread internet blackouts to the regime's military and technological limitations - has humiliated the ruling elite and exposed their vulnerability. The conversation also explores how the war has intensified internal debates, with pragmatic and moderate voices now pushing for political reform and a change in Iran's foreign policy. The episode offers a sobering, yet essential, look at a regime that must now confront its own failures and decide whether to change course or risk total collapse. You can find Alex on X @AlexVatanka To listen to the full episode, you’ll need to subscribe to the Conflicted Community. And don’t forget, subscribers can also join our Conflicted Community chatroom, where you can interact with fellow dearest listeners, discuss episodes past and future, get exclusive messages from Thomas and Aimen, ask future Q&A questions and so much more. All the information you need to sign up is on this link: https://conflicted.supportingcast.fm/ Conflicted is proudly made by Message Heard, a full-stack podcast production agency which uses its extensive expertise to make its own shows such as Conflicted, shows for commissioners such as the BBC, Spotify and Al Jazeera, and powerfully effective podcasts for other companies too. If you’d like to find out how we can help get your organisation’s message heard, visit messageheard.com or drop an email to hello@messageheard.com! Find us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/MHconflicted And Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MHconflictedLearn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

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0:59.4	than you invest. Welcome back. Dearest listeners, Thomas Small here with another episode for our
1:06.1	conflicted community. Today, we're turning our attention once again to a nation that always seems to be
1:13.7	in peril or causing peril elsewhere, and which has dictated so much of the Middle East's
1:20.1	travails over the past half century, the Islamic Republic of Iran. Much has been made of the wider
1:27.4	geopolitical ramifications of the 12-day war between Iran. Much has been made of the wider geopolitical ramifications of the 12-day
1:30.2	war between Iran, Israel, and the United States earlier this year, but the situation inside Iran
1:37.8	remains obscure. America's and Israel's strikes killed many top Iranian officials, potentially stymying its nuclear
1:47.4	campaign, something we were told for decades would result in global catastrophe. But so far at least,
1:54.9	catastrophe has not materialized. Not for us, at least. But what about for Iran?
2:01.9	To explore that question, I've invited a guest on to help us understand how the recent war is changing the Islamic Republic, if indeed it is.
2:12.0	My guest today is a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, a leading scholar of Iranian domestic and foreign policy,
2:20.2	and he is an Iranian. His work, including his latest book, The Battle of the Ayatollahs in Iran,
2:27.0	offers a vital look into the inner workings of the regime, as will his next book focusing on
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