Welcome to the beat. I am Ari Melbert. And more importantly, this is James Carville. The veteran

grizzled strategist joins us for the first time since the New York probe of Trump escalated.

You are our live lead-off guest tonight, James. I will see you in a minute. Now, why are we tracking

these developments? Well, I'll put it like this. Sometimes we get clues. Sometimes we get just a sign of what's going to

happen out of this kind of usually secretive probe. And sometimes we report on the lack of

developments. Because the sober fact tonight is while this case is hot, it is not from what we can tell

getting any hotter today. The grand jury will not return to the Trump case until Monday.

D.A. Bragg, though, is making a little bit of news. It doesn't tell us whether he's going to indict anyone,

but it does tell us that he will not be Mueller silent during this period in this political environment.

Firing back today at House Republicans demanding his testimony about

this probe, calling it an unprecedented inquiry into basically a local matter where they have no

jurisdiction. Now, Stormy Daniels, meanwhile trolling Trump, saying, if he is charged, she will be

dancing down the street. The entertainer bringing some grateful dead energy, if you know that song right there.

But all of the public sniping, the gloating, it picks up on how we all remember when this case first spilled out fully into public view.

Daniels wrote tons of public interest with a strategy hatched by someone you might recall,

her loud, controversial, and later convicted

lawyer, Michael Avanotti.

But some of that pass is actually quite relevant.

I want to show you why before I bring James back, because Avanotti was the one breaking down

the current defense from Donald Trump's current lawyers, a defense that boils down to blame

Michael Cohen for everything.

Take a look. Here was Avinati on this very point in 2018 on the beat. It's ludicrous. The suggestion is ludicrous. I'm going to use

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