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The John Batchelor Show

#AI: End of AI supremacy. John Cochrane, Hoover

The John Batchelor Show

John Batchelor

Books, News, Society & Culture, Arts

4.52.8K Ratings

🗓️ 29 January 2025

⏱️ 10 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

#AI: End of AI supremacy. John Cochrane, Hoover
1927 JOHN CARTER ON MARS

Transcript

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0:00.0

This is CBS Eye on the World. Here's John Batchelor.

0:12.0

Artificial intelligence, NVIDIA, and then Deepseek. We're telling a story here that is an illustration of how technology works in the 20th and now 21st century.

0:24.1

The breakthrough, and then I welcome John Cochran of Stanford University, a professor of economics,

0:30.9

who is also an esteemed fellow at the Hoover Institution writing his substact blog, Grumpy Economist.

0:38.1

He's anything with Grumpy.

0:39.2

He's cheerful.

0:39.8

But right now we're turning to the matter that made all of Wall Street frown.

0:43.4

And as far as I know, the oligarchs of the universe frowned when a startup, not even a monetized shop, a research development called Deep Seek out of China presented evidence

0:57.7

that the billion dollars you might need or 100 million minimum you might need to train

1:04.5

the chips that NVIDIA turns out to turn to answer the questions that the public has about artificial intelligence,

1:13.2

that that might be reducible by magnitude that I can only guess at because my minus is very

1:19.1

weak. John, a very good evening to you. It was a hundred million, maybe a billion, say the

1:24.8

lords of the artificial intelligence. And then it comes in about five to six

1:29.8

million, maybe some more pricing on top because of research, but certainly not a hundred million.

1:35.4

Was this, if I read your column correctly, this was always going to happen. It was the question of when.

1:40.9

Good evening to you, John. Good evening. Yes. That's the way things work.

1:45.0

We invent a new technology. We figure out, wow, it can do amazing things at prodigious cost,

1:51.9

and then the cost gutters get to work and figure out how to do it cheaper and cheaper and

1:56.0

cheaper. And that's, you know, since the first computers had vacuum tubes and look what's happened to computers.

2:04.7

Artificial intelligence and machine learning, the way they work is to be just computing power is cheap.

2:11.9

So we'll just throw lots of computing power things.

2:14.4

Well, computing power is cheap until you scaled that up into the $100 million range. That focuses the mind on can we do this, in this case, with cleverer software

...

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