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The John Batchelor Show

58: Ahmad Fouad Alkhatib discusses the high probability of renewed conflict in Gaza, arguing that the ceasefire is fragile due to Hamas's malign intentions. He estimates Hamas's combat-effective forces are significantly lower than reported (3,000 to 5,000, ve

The John Batchelor Show

John Batchelor

News, Books, Society & Culture, Arts

4.52.8K Ratings

🗓️ 7 November 2025

⏱️ 10 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Ahmad Fouad Alkhatib discusses the high probability of renewed conflict in Gaza, arguing that the ceasefire is fragile due to Hamas's malign intentions. He estimates Hamas's combat-effective forces are significantly lower than reported (3,000 to 5,000, versus 15,000 to 30,000), noting Hamas pays fighters $20 to $25 a day. He also challenges polls showing widespread Gazan support for Hamas, arguing such results are manipulated and defy logic given the catastrophe following October 7. Disarmament is crucial for any future political process.

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Transcript

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0:00.0

I'm John Batchel with Ahmed Fuad Al-Khattib for the Atlantic magazine where he has an article about the war is coming back.

0:11.4

He's a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.

0:14.0

And we're talking about Hamas and its ambitions.

0:17.8

You identify two camps when you talk about the next step, which is disarmament.

0:23.2

One camp says political process first, then disarmament. The other camp says, if you don't take

0:28.6

the guns away, there is no political process. There's just brutality. Is either camp in control

0:34.1

of the next steps, Ahmed? Thank you. It appears that the camp, which believes there has to be disarmament first, is winning out.

0:43.4

And I am glad to say that, thankfully, people are realizing that you cannot have a credible

0:50.7

political process in which a terror organization that has guns, that is violent, that has a disgusting ideology, is going to somehow step back and allow for the emergence of a free society, allow for the emergence of a diverse, multifaceted political arena that is going to be inherently

1:16.1

in opposition to its very existence.

1:19.7

And so let's pretend that I'm going to be a member of the technocratic committee.

1:23.8

And I am going to tackle the issue of Hamas violating the sanctity of medical facilities and actually legitimately using medical facilities.

1:34.7

The three main hospitals in Gaza right now, Shifa in Gaza City, Al-Axa Brigade, Al-Axa in Dar al-Bal-Bara and Central Gaza Gaza and Nasr Hospital in southern Gaza and Khan Yunus.

1:48.9

Hamas uses those hospitals to interrogate people.

1:53.3

It uses those hospitals to call up people that it suspects of transgressions and to say and and and and in in the when they

2:03.9

call people or when they send them notes they say come and see us at the hospital so i want to do

2:11.5

something about that how am i as an unarmed technocrat going to issue a decision that says Hamas needs to take its staff

2:21.9

and its guns out of the hospital? It just makes no sense. There is no credible way in which a

2:30.0

political process can actually lead to disarmament. whereas if from the get-go, we start with,

2:39.0

hey, guys, let's actually take stock of all the different ways in which arms are present in Gaza,

2:47.0

in the tunnels, on the streets, in the hospitals, in the markets, in the UN schools.

2:53.2

And this is not just me.

...

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