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The John Batchelor Show

52: Flood Data Shows Alarming Trends, Surpassing Previous Modeling Estimates. Professor Beth Tellman (University of Arizona Geography Department; Cloud to Street) highlights that her compiled flood data is useful for financial sectors, such as insurance and m

The John Batchelor Show

John Batchelor

Society & Culture, Arts, News, Books

4.52.8K Ratings

🗓️ 5 November 2025

⏱️ 8 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Flood Data Shows Alarming Trends, Surpassing Previous Modeling Estimates. Professor Beth Tellman (University of Arizona Geography Department; Cloud to Street) highlights that her compiled flood data is useful for financial sectors, such as insurance and municipal bonds. The data shows Asia dominates observations, accounting for 398 of 913 events, including 85 in India and 52 in China. Furthermore, climate change projections for 2030 show Asia, among 57 countries globally, is expected to see significantly increased flood exposure. Tellman asserts her data is more alarming than previous modeling because it systematically captures impactful human events that models often exclude, such as dam breaks (13 events affecting over 13 million people). Although projections to 2100 are highly uncertain, the 2030 predictions are considered a "pretty good bet." This fresh, observed data, which runs contrary to good planning, is expected to be incorporated into the next IPCC report.
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Transcript

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0:00.0

This is TBS. I'm the World. I'm John Batchel with Professor Beth Tellman, University of Arizona Geography Department.

0:12.5

Also the chief science officer and co-founder of Cloud District, publishing in Nature magazine, the premier peer-reviewed magazine for science in Europe, matching science here,

0:25.7

about a database compiled using satellites, NASA satellites, to point to where the flooding has been,

0:34.0

the early years of the 21st century, where the people are, the movement of people,

0:39.8

growth of people in the floodplains. And what all that adds up to is, for example, I

0:47.4

learn in the summary of the article, this is a very useful item for financial speculation about municipal bonds, what is and what is not desirable for insurance, for areas that have experienced floods or might experience floods again.

1:04.6

A hundred-year flood means you have 1% every year.

1:07.6

And as we note recently, there are a whole lot of one percenters coming in. So, Professor,

1:13.0

if I go to the summary correctly, Asia dominates the story. Three hundred and ninety-eight of the

1:20.5

913, 52 in China, 85 in India. The ones in China seem especially damaging.

1:29.4

Did you pick that up with your satellite images?

1:33.2

Yes.

1:34.4

There are a lot of floods that were mapping in Asia, generally, southern Asia and Southeast

1:42.2

Asia specifically, and some of the largest growth we've seen in people building and moving into floodplains has been in these regions.

1:54.0

So you can see, for example, if you are in the paper on figure four, a lot of these countries on figure four A that you'll see

2:02.7

lighting up in orange and red. Those are the countries where we've seen a lot of growth in flood

2:08.4

planes in about the past 20 years. But what's even more concerning is figure 4B. These are

2:15.0

climate change projections for 2030. You see even more countries in Asia

2:19.5

start to light up in these yellow and orange colors. And that indicates that climate change

2:25.1

will significantly increase flood exposure in this region. However, Asia is not the only suspect

2:31.4

for having to make adjustments, financial adjustments, insurance,

2:35.2

population. Really, if you live in a floodplain, bad things are going to happen eventually.

...

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