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28: 3. Supply vs. Demand: Economic Shocks, Entitlements, and the Invisible Population Nicholas Eberstadt Book: Men Without Work (Post-Pandemic Edition) Eberstadt explores the competing explanations for the ghost army, contrasting his supply-side argument (men

The John Batchelor Show

John Batchelor

News, Books, Society & Culture, Arts

4.52.8K Ratings

🗓️ 26 October 2025

⏱️ 13 minutes

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Summary

3. Supply vs. Demand: Economic Shocks, Entitlements, and the Invisible Population Nicholas Eberstadt Book: Men Without Work (Post-Pandemic Edition)

Eberstadt explores the competing explanations for the ghost army, contrasting his supply-side argument (men holding back labor/unpreparedness) with demand-side views from critics Henry Olsen and Jared Bernstein. Olsen highlights the role of economic shocks and structural changes, like the 1970s stagflation and deindustrialization (the Rust Belt). The role of entitlements is significant, as over half of NILF men receive at least one benefit, often disability payments like SSDI. Regional differences in labor force participation (e.g., high inactivity in West Virginia adjacent to low inactivity in Maryland) mitigate a purely national demand-side case. The source stresses the lack of data on the estimated 25 million ex-convicts, who are an "invisible population" largely untracked by labor statistics.
1929

Transcript

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0:00.0

This is CBS, I on the World.

0:07.3

I'm John Batchel with Nicholas Ebersstadt of the American Enterprise Institute.

0:11.3

His book, Men Without Work, republished as a post-pandemic edition,

0:14.9

and we will come to what Nick can tell us of the statistics

0:18.6

after the shutdown of the American economy in the late winter, early spring of 2020.

0:24.1

But now to two of Nick's colleagues, Henry Olson and Jared Bernstein, who contribute a different look at the men without work statistics we've been discussing.

0:35.4

I begin with Henry Olson because he speaks of

0:39.9

recessions. There have been seven since the war, I believe, Nick, what you provide. And he points to

0:45.5

the twin shocks of the 1970s. Why so? What does that mean for him? Well, so Henry is talking,

0:54.0

Henry is talking about the, about the recession and

0:58.3

stagflation, the, the big shocks that came to the economy, where we started to see the decline

1:05.6

and manufacture, the really acceleration of the decline in manufacturing. And Henry and other critics,

1:14.1

and I think it's great to include some critics and dissent in a book

1:17.4

because you get the argument started,

1:19.3

have pointed to these structural changes

1:22.2

as being fundamentally unfavorable to the former male sort of employment mode.

1:29.8

The observation is that you've overestimated government causes and underestimated the change in labor market.

1:38.5

That would be the twin shocks of the 1970s.

1:41.3

And yet there's more here.

1:43.1

This is what was known as the Rust Belt, right, Nick, the deindustrialization of the Midwest. In reading your book, I had this image in my mind, I don't know, about factories getting out and seeing this team of human beings moving in this way, all men, and then they go through the front gate and go on to their lives

2:01.7

that day. And then the next day, they'd reverse the course. That was possible in the 1960s,

2:07.3

but it was all gone by the 1970s. I'm imagining how Henry Olson is looking at this. How does that

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