2/2: #Russia: Growing under sanctions 2022; struggling under sanctions 2023 & What is to be done?
The John Batchelor Show
John Batchelor
4.5 • 2.8K Ratings
🗓️ 16 August 2023
⏱️ 6 minutes
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2/2: #Russia: Growing under sanctions 2022; struggling under sanctions 2023 & What is to be done?
https://geopoliticalfutures.com/russias-economic-rebound-nears-its-limits/
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | This is CBSI on the World. I'm John Batcher visiting with a Katerina Zalotova, riding |
| 0:10.7 | for Geopolitical Futures in Analysts. She's in Moscow, observing the Russian economy. |
| 0:15.5 | 2022 was a surprise. Here in 2023, we've seen energy prices increase so much so that we |
| 0:22.6 | can report right now that the price caps established by the G7 are no longer holding |
| 0:29.0 | that the demand for Russian energy continues, especially in new markets, India and China. |
| 0:35.8 | And yet, what can go wrong and why? The first thing you indicate in your reporting at Katerina |
| 0:41.0 | is overheating. Is that what's happening to the rubles? Is that considered overheating? |
| 0:45.9 | Well, yes. All the economy and rubles will, I consider, are overheating. And a lot |
| 0:52.0 | of experts and a special essential bank are pointing to these. Of course, the government |
| 0:58.3 | are trying to be more positive about this and they say that right now the economy is getting |
| 1:04.1 | into the growth. But there is some risk that these growth will not last long and they will |
| 1:12.4 | be overheating. The reason of this is the growing demand. And of course, the Russian economy, |
| 1:21.6 | as we just told, is working on maximum. There is a very high production of different goods, |
| 1:26.8 | of industrial goods, of goods for citizens. The supply is not enough to cover the demand. |
| 1:34.4 | And Russian understands that it still needs to import. And with import, there are two major |
| 1:40.6 | problems. First of all, it's very high-ruble. Today and yesterday, the exchange rate was |
| 1:49.1 | 100 rubles per dollar. This is very high level. I think since March 2022, exactly when the sanctions |
| 1:58.5 | were introduced, with the very weak rubles, it's very difficult to import a lot as the import |
| 2:07.6 | becomes simply very, very expensive. And the second thing that Russia could potentially face, |
| 2:14.8 | it's the condition of economy of its major partners. Right now, Russia is majorly buying |
| 2:24.9 | goods from China, from Turkey, both Turkish goods and both parallel imports as well. |
| 2:33.2 | Central Asia and the rest of the friendly countries as Russia says. And if the economy could |
... |
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