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Thinking Basketball

#164: The best shooters ever

Thinking Basketball

Thinking Basketball

Sports

4.9897 Ratings

🗓️ 23 December 2022

⏱️ 88 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Who are the best shooters in NBA history? (Or really, of the 3-point era?) We discuss the concept of outside shooting skill and use a model to estimate shooting outside of 15 feet going back to 1980, comparing volume and accuracy relative to league norms to help sort out the greatest outside shooters in league history. With @codyhoudek. Support at www.patreon.com/thinkingbasketball

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Transcript

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0:00.0

Thank you're is

0:15.0

many years in the making,

0:18.0

many years in the making,

0:20.0

two years ago

0:22.0

over the summer on one of my many summer projects that never sees the light of day.

0:27.0

I got, as you would like to say, lost in the sauce, I was playing with my toolkit for a little bit too long in the sandbox

0:35.5

trying to model outside shooting before we had outside shooting data I was trying to

0:41.2

figure out who the best outside shooters were beyond just

0:45.6

three-point percentages because in the 80s they didn't even take that many threes.

0:50.0

So a lot of the best outside shooters in the 80s, especially the early and mid 80s, we didn't even have much three point data for.

0:57.0

So I had this idea of like, you know, I really want to look at guys outside 15 feet, long twos, we don't have play-by-play data. For those who don't know, play-by-play data is available since

1:06.9

1997 and it does stuff like log every shot. So the scorekeeper at the arena says, you know,

1:13.5

LeBron James, 16 foot jumper missed.

1:17.0

LeBron James, 20, when you see like these long threes,

1:19.5

26 foot three pointer made.

1:21.5

That's just the scorekeeper estimating the distance and

1:25.4

they do a pretty good job. So we have like you know over 25 years of that data

1:29.2

but I was trying to figure out how can we go back even more than those 25 years and so today

1:36.1

the culmination of that there's been a lot of discussion about this recently we

1:40.5

are going to rank the top 74 shooter.

1:45.0

No, we don't have 74, do we?

1:46.2

We have a lot.

...

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