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On The Market

You Have Until 2031: What Happens When Population Goes Negative?

On The Market

BiggerPockets

Investing, Education, Business, News

4.8859 Ratings

🗓️ 26 February 2026

⏱️ 45 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

There’s a ticking time bomb for the U.S. housing market that nobody is talking about. It’s the biggest existential threat to home prices and housing demand, and it (arguably) can’t be stopped. The question is, how long do we have until it happens? Today, we’re talking about population: what happens when the U.S. population begins to decline, and the need for housing falls year after year? Deaths are already set to outpace births by 2031, meaning we’re just five short years away from this risky scenario becoming reality. What happens to home prices? Will millions of homes sit empty? Which markets will see their values fall the fastest? Is real estate still safe to invest in? Dave’s giving a masterclass on the population crisis, and how the housing market will be affected. From birth rates to immigration, baby boomers passing away (and passing down their houses), and cities that will face the biggest demographic headwinds, this is what every investor needs to know before 2031.  In This Episode We Cover What happens to the housing market once the population begins to decline? Will our housing shortage flip to a supply glut as demand is forced to fall? The one thing propping up our population and how it’s starting to falter Short, medium, and long-term housing forecasts as population decline increases Lessons from Japan, Germany, and Italy: Where do home prices fall the fastest once populations decline? Markets that will be the safest when the population finally begins to flip And So Much More! Links from the Show Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise Join BiggerPockets for FREE Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets Sign Up for the On the Market Newsletter Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area U.S. Immigration Crisis: What It Really Means for Housing Markets and Investors Dave's BiggerPockets Profile Grab Dave’s Book, "Real Estate by the Numbers" Check out more resources from this show on ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠BiggerPockets.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and  https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-403. Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠advertise@biggerpockets.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

There is a ticking time bomb in the U.S. housing market that no one seems to be talking about.

0:06.7

And this isn't clickbait.

0:07.9

I genuinely believe this is one of the biggest risks to real estate investors and one of the biggest questions about the future of our entire industry.

0:17.8

So what is it?

0:19.3

Population decline. Population and household growth drives demand for

0:25.3

housing and rentals, but our population is not going to be growing much longer. With lower immigration

0:32.2

and quickly falling birth rates, is housing demand at risk of drying up in the future? Could we go from an

0:40.0

undersupplied market to an oversupplied market in just the next couple of years? The answers to

0:46.6

these questions are massively important to real estate investors. And in today's episode of

0:51.8

On the Market, we're digging into this question about population growth,

0:56.9

how it's going to impact real estate values,

0:59.7

we'll learn lessons from other countries in similar situations,

1:03.2

and of course we're going to talk about

1:04.5

how you should position your own portfolio.

1:07.4

I promise you, this is an episode you do not want to miss.

1:11.7

This is On the Market.

1:12.9

Let's get to it.

1:18.6

Hey, everyone, it's Dave.

1:20.1

Welcome to On the Market.

1:21.6

We have a great episode for you today.

1:25.2

It's actually one that I've been wanting to make for a while. It's definitely one that I've been wanting to make for a while. It's

1:28.1

definitely one that I've been researching for a while. We are talking about a potential

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