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More or Less

WS MoreOrLess: What is "rare"?

More or Less

BBC

News Commentary, Science, Mathematics, News

4.63.7K Ratings

🗓️ 17 December 2012

⏱️ 10 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

This week: What is ‘rare’? When we say something is rare what do we mean? Lightning strikes which typically kill three people a year in the UK are often described as rare but how do we square that with a condition like motor neurone disease which is also described as rare yet kills 1500 people a year in the UK. Also we speak to Nassim Taleb about his book Anti-fragile.

Transcript

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0:00.0

Thank you for downloading from the BBC.

0:03.0

For details of our complete range of podcasts and our terms of use,

0:07.0

go to BBCWorldService.com slash podcasts.

0:13.0

Hello and welcome to more or less on the BBC World Service.

0:17.0

With me, Tim Hartford, opening the curtains and letting the light in on the lazy use of numbers.

0:23.0

Now, loyal listener Les Halpin recently wrote to us with a question that brought us up short.

0:28.0

Les has motor neurone disease, a condition which is both fatal and rare.

0:33.0

But rare is a strange word.

0:35.0

Here is Les's email, read by an actor.

0:38.0

It struck me that the way we use words is clearly at odds with their precision as numbers.

0:43.0

In particular, on TV the other day, a lightning strike on an individual was described as rare.

0:48.0

Probably 12 strikes per year, three fatal.

0:51.0

At the same time, something like motor neurone disease is described as a rare disease

0:56.0

with 5,000 sufferers and 1,500 deaths per year.

1:00.0

What does rarity really mean?

1:03.0

There's no precise, universally accepted definition of rare.

1:07.0

But strangely enough, there is a widely accepted definition of rare disease.

1:11.0

It's a disease that affects fewer than 0.0.5% of the population, one in 2,000 people.

1:18.0

Both the UK authorities and the European Union use that definition.

1:22.0

Still, that doesn't quite answer Les Halpin's question.

1:25.0

What do we think we're saying when we use a word such as rare?

1:29.0

And this isn't a question for a mathematician or a statistician.

...

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