WS MoreOrLess: Risk Savvy
More or Less
BBC
4.6 • 3.7K Ratings
🗓️ 26 May 2014
⏱️ 10 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
A famous probability puzzle is discussed involving goats and game shows with German psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer. Is he right to suggest in his new book 'Risk Savvy' that we really don't understand risk and uncertainty? And More or Less listeners weigh in on a problem from last week’s programme - how old will you be before you're guaranteed to celebrate a major, round-number birthday (like 40 or 50) on a weekend?
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | This is the short edition of More or Less. |
| 0:02.0 | First broadcast on the BBC World Service. |
| 0:06.0 | Thank you for downloading from the BBC. |
| 0:09.0 | The details of our complete range of podcasts and our terms of use |
| 0:13.0 | go to BBCWorldService.com slash podcasts. |
| 0:18.0 | Hello and welcome to More or Less on the BBC World Service |
| 0:23.0 | where you'll weekly look at numbers in the news and in life |
| 0:26.0 | and I'm Tim Harford. |
| 0:28.0 | I hope you're sitting comfortably and paying close attention |
| 0:31.0 | we are about to describe a classic brain teaser |
| 0:35.0 | that never fails to stir controversy. |
| 0:37.0 | Listen carefully. |
| 0:43.0 | Hello and welcome to Let's Make a Deal. |
| 0:46.0 | A game show that aired on NBC in the US in the 1960s. |
| 0:51.0 | The host Monty Hall, yes that's his name, |
| 0:54.0 | is showing the contestant three doors. |
| 0:57.0 | Behind one of the doors is the top prize a brand new Cadillac. |
| 1:03.0 | Behind the other two doors are goats. |
| 1:07.0 | Not what you want. |
| 1:09.0 | The contestant has to choose between door one, door two or door three. |
| 1:16.0 | She thinks for a while and then chooses door one. |
| 1:21.0 | Now to make it even more tantalising. |
... |
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