Summary
Are the statistics put forward by UKIP accurate, and are Romanians responsible for more crime than other nationalities? Plus: Gerd Gigerenzer on the famous probability puzzle involving goats and game shows; do 24,000 people die every year from lightning strikes globally; how old will you be before you're guaranteed a round-number birthday on a weekend; and is the divorce rate in the US state of Maine linked to margarine consumption?
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Thank you for downloading more or less from the BBC. |
| 0:03.2 | This is the version first broadcast on Radio 4. |
| 0:06.4 | Here's Tim Hathard. |
| 0:07.8 | Hello and welcome to More or Less. |
| 0:10.4 | You'll weekly look at numbers in the news and in life. |
| 0:13.8 | This week we look for the most spurious statistical correlations we can find. |
| 0:18.8 | Psychologist Gerd Kurensa tells us how to be savvy about risk. |
| 0:23.5 | And speaking of risks, is lightning really a mass killer? |
| 0:27.6 | Some like 24,000 people a year? |
| 0:29.6 | Well, why get killed by lightning? |
| 0:31.1 | So it's a major hazard, yes. |
| 0:34.7 | But first, are Remanians responsible for a crime wave? |
| 0:39.5 | In the run up to the European elections, Nigel Farage, |
| 0:42.7 | leader of the UK Independence Party, UKIP, |
| 0:45.8 | got in some bother over comments he made repeated here during an interview on LBC Radio. |
| 0:51.6 | I was asked a question if a group of Romanian men moved in next to you, would you be concerned? |
| 0:55.6 | And if you lived in London, I think you would be. |
| 0:57.9 | Mr Farage has backpedaled somewhat from that, but he and other senior UKIP politicians have |
| 1:02.9 | tried to make the case that there is a problem with Romanian crime, |
| 1:06.7 | and they've used statistics to do that. |
| 1:09.1 | The question is, has UKIP got the facts right? |
| 1:12.8 | UKIP put out a full-page advertisement in the Daily Telegraph, and that advert |
... |
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