Will there be an election upset on Thursday?
Coffee House Shots
The Spectator
4.4 • 2.2K Ratings
🗓️ 3 July 2024
⏱️ 14 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
James Heale speaks to Katy Balls and James Kanagasooriam, chief research officer at Focaldata.
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | If you don't subscribe to the Spectator, now is the perfect time to give us a try. |
| 0:04.4 | We're having an election time offer. Three pounds for three months, that's a pretty good deal, |
| 0:10.4 | magazine, digital access, and to top it off you get a free mug with Morton |
| 0:15.2 | Morland's election artwork so to get the software goes to Spectator.co. UK |
| 0:20.4 | forward slash mug. |
| 0:26.5 | Hello and welcome to coffee house shots. I'm James Seal and I'm joined today by the Spectators political |
| 0:28.7 | editor Katie Balls and James Kagan's story of Folkall data. |
| 0:31.7 | Now James, you've been outlining over the last few days |
| 0:34.4 | you've got a couple of big polls on MRP polls that come out. There's three doors you think |
| 0:38.1 | these are all going to be out. Tell us about them. |
| 0:40.0 | So one of the themes I think of the campaign has been the wide range of |
| 0:44.3 | sequel costs and I think the easiest way to think about it is a story which is |
| 0:48.2 | there are three doors that the let's talk about the right for a second that they |
| 0:51.6 | could walk through in terms of the |
| 0:53.1 | forecasts of the first door which I think companies like Salvation have come out |
| 0:57.1 | with is just quite an apocalyptic scenario of the Conservative Party basically vying |
| 1:01.0 | with the Liberal Democrats for second and third place on |
| 1:03.5 | around 60 seats. The second door which is a host of companies including my own |
| 1:07.6 | which is a very very bad election outcome for the Conservativesators but around 110 seats. |
| 1:13.4 | So terrible fall from 370 by the way on notional boundaries. |
| 1:17.9 | Eight points lower than the lowest vote share it's had since the franchise, |
| 1:21.9 | but still around and still sizable and |
... |
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