Why Mortgage Rates are Rising as the Fed Keeps Cutting

On The Market

BiggerPockets

Investing, Education, Business, News

4.8 • 859 Ratings

🗓️ 4 November 2025

⏱️ 36 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

The Fed cuts rates, and mortgage rates go up. Then they do it again, and rates…go back up. How does this keep happening? Has the Fed lost complete control over mortgage rates? The Fed has now cut rates twice in 2025, and we’re hovering around the same (if not slightly higher) mortgage rates as before the first cut. After last week’s rate cut announcement, investors were surprised to see that mortgages—once again—got even more expensive. But it’s not because of what the Fed did—it was because of what they said, potentially foreshadowing a slower, longer path back to 5% mortgage rates. Dave is on to explain why mortgage rates moved in the opposite direction, why we could be stuck with higher mortgage rates for longer, and the two things that need to happen for mortgage rates to break back into the 5% range. Plus, he’ll share three realistic scenarios that could cause rates to move in different directions and what could trigger each. In This Episode We Cover The Fed meeting announcement explained and why mortgage rates went up The real reason why we’re not seeing mortgage rates fall below 6% Alarming corporate layoffs and whether this is a warning sign for the entire economy Some good/bad news about inflation and the cities that are faring the worst Three likely mortgage rate scenarios that could send rates in different directions, without the Fed making moves And So Much More! Links from the Show Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise Join BiggerPockets for FREE Grab Dave’s Book, Real Estate by the Numbers Sign Up for the On the Market Newsletter Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area BiggerPockets Real Estate 1194 - Don’t Bet on the Fed: What Investors Need to Do Now as Rates Rise Again Find Investor-Friendly Lenders Property Manager Finder Dave's BiggerPockets Profile Check out more resources from this show on ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠BiggerPockets.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-370 Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠advertise@biggerpockets.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	Mortgage rates recently hit their lowest point in a year. Things were trending in a good
0:05.1	direction. And then the Fed cut rates and mortgage rates actually just went up. It may seem confusing,
0:12.6	but if you look at the economic data, what's happening does make sense. And on today's
0:17.5	episode, I'm going to explain what is going on at the Fed, why mortgage rates
0:22.1	have reacted the way they have, and share what I think we can all expect going forward.
0:32.0	Hey, everyone. Welcome to On the Market. I'm Dave Meyer. Thank you all so much for being here
0:37.2	for yet another Fed reaction video.
0:41.4	You've probably heard a lot of people celebrating this Fed rate cut or predicting that this was the beginning of mortgage rates really coming down and affordability coming back to the housing market.
0:53.1	But unfortunately, at least as of now,
0:55.5	and I am recording this on Halloween, so two days after the Fed rate cut, mortgage rates have only
1:00.8	gone up. And if you listen to this show, you may understand a little bit why that's happening
1:06.9	so far, but I wouldn't blame you if you were confused. The whole world saying the Fed cuts
1:12.1	rates and mortgage rates go down and then they cut rates and mortgage rates go up. It's a little bit
1:17.2	weird, but I think I can help you all understand what's going on here. So that's the plan for
1:23.0	the episode today. I'm going to talk a little bit about just what actually happened at the Fed
1:27.4	meeting. And then I'm going to go into little bit about just what actually happened at the Fed meeting,
1:28.0	and then I'm going to go into the why of all this and just explain some of the economic background
1:33.3	that is driving these things. So that's what we're going to do. Let's jump in. First up, what actually
1:39.0	happened at the Fed? Well, they cut the federal funds rate, 25 basis points.
1:46.2	That just means 0.25%. This is no surprise.
1:47.7	This is what everyone was expecting.
1:49.5	They basically said that they were going to do this.
	...

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