Why Is It So Hard to Predict the Next Great Quarterback?

Plain English with Derek Thompson

The Ringer

News, News Commentary

4.7 • 2.1K Ratings

🗓️ 29 April 2022

⏱️ 35 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

This week we have the NFL draft, which is an annual exercise in failure. Every year, some NFL team makes a disastrous quarterback decision but also overlooks a potential star. Why is it so damn hard to predict QB play in football? Are scouts stupid, or is the future just unknowable, or is hiring fundamentally chaotic, or is there something specific about quarterbacking that makes it uniquely difficult to forecast? The economist David Berri joins to share his research on why scouts are terrible at evaluating quarterbacks. His ideas shed light on larger questions like "What is talent, exactly?" and "Does anybody know what they're doing when they're hiring somebody for a new role?" Host: Derek Thompson Guest: David Berri Producer: Devon Manze Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	Hey, it's Sean Fennese, we've got something special cooking on the Prestige TV podcast.
0:06.0	I'll be recapping one of my favorite shows, HBO's Barry, every Sunday night with the writer-director
0:11.2	star of the show, The Great Bill Hater.
0:13.7	We'll talk about the show's wild twists and turns, its special brand of dark comedy,
0:17.7	and how it all came together.
0:18.9	So on Sunday nights, immediately after a new episode airs, you can hear Bill and I break
0:22.7	it all down on the Prestige TV pod.
0:25.4	Subscribe on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
0:30.2	Today's subject is football, football, and the mystery of talent.
0:38.4	The NFL Draft is this week.
0:40.7	That's where executives get together to select the college players that will join their team.
0:45.2	I am a huge fan of the NFL Draft.
0:48.1	For a couple of reasons.
0:48.9	First, I love football.
0:50.2	Second, I think talent and potential are such fascinating topics.
0:55.4	I think we all do.
0:56.2	We all read articles about, you know, the next great pop star,
0:59.0	the next great movie star, next great product, company, technology, next great thing.
1:04.3	It's just a really fun concept.
1:06.6	But there's something about the topic of potential in the NFL specifically that doesn't
1:10.6	just fascinate me, it kind of haunts me.
1:14.2	And that is the question, why is it so damn hard to predict the next great quarterback?
	...

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