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Lost Debate

Why I’ve Changed How I Invest

Lost Debate

The Branch

News, Society & Culture, Politics

4.6607 Ratings

🗓️ 8 October 2025

⏱️ 30 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Ravi Gupta asks: What if the greatest risk in markets today isn’t missing out on AI—but believing it can never crash? In this solo deep dive, he unpacks why today’s trillion-dollar bets on artificial intelligence may mirror past manias—and why, with pensions, private equity, and passive index funds all in the mix, the next downturn could look less like Silicon Valley in 2000 and more like Japan’s lost decade. All of these arguments build toward a single point: how Ravi is rethinking his own portfolio, and why he believes resilience—not hype—is the smarter path forward. Signal Award Voting (make sure to vote if you haven’t yet) -- Leave us a voicemail with your thoughts on the show! 201-305-0084⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow Ravi at @RaviMGupta Notes from this episode are also available on Substack: https://thelostdebate.substack.com/ Read more from Ravi on Substack: https://realravigupta.substack.com  Follow The Branch at @thebranchmedia Listen to more episodes of Lost Debate on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-lost-debate/id1591300785 Listen to more episodes of Lost Debate on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/7xR9pch9DrQDiZfGB5oF0F Listen to Where the Schools Went: https://thebranchmedia.org/show/where-the-schools-went/

Transcript

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0:00.0

Welcome to The Lost Debate, a show for political eclectics. I'm Robbie Gupta. Before I get it to our topic of the day, two quick announcements. Number one, where the schools went, our podcast about New Orleans, is up for the Signal Award, and they have a public voting that's been going on. I think it's only for like another day. And so we're going to link in the show notes, but you can go to the Signal Awards voting

0:21.6

or click in the show notes. It should take you 30 seconds or less. You could do it through your Google account. Vote for us. We're neck and neck right now. I think we're like a percent or two behind Freakonomics podcast. So if you want to put us over the top, I would really appreciate it. I am fond of reminding you that we don't charge you for this podcast.

0:39.4

We don't charge you for

0:38.6

this podcast. We don't even bother you with ads. So these little things make a difference to us

0:43.4

because that recognition is what fuels our work and brings more people to the work that we do.

0:48.7

The second thing is I have a substack, real ravi goopta.substack.com. We'll also link to that in the

0:54.1

show notes. And I've

0:55.3

been posting about stuff usually unrelated to politics or policy, although this week I made an

1:00.7

exception where I actually just posted a piece all about how I am been thinking differently

1:07.0

about how I invest. And actually, I'm going to run an experiment on this podcast show

1:11.5

right now. I've been thinking a lot about, about, you know, what is different about the lost

1:17.7

debate episodes that have done extremely well and where I hear from you, the audience, saying,

1:23.5

oh, that was dramatically different than anything I heard. And it's stuff like the

1:28.7

unbiased history of Israel, Palestine, for example. It's these kind of deep dives where I go into

1:33.8

a kind of didactic analysis of an issue that it's a little bit more evergreen than, say,

1:41.4

like an interview with somebody about a newsy topic. So I'm running an experiment by

1:45.6

taking some of the work that I did to write this piece all about how I've changed the way I think

1:51.0

about investing and actually share it as a podcast episode. And I would love to hear from you.

1:56.3

If you hear this and you're like, okay, this is actually super helpful. I like deep dives like

2:00.5

this on different issues where you kind of like lay out a whole bunch of research and

2:05.0

takeaways from that research on a topic that is a bit more evergreen than what you normally do.

2:09.6

If you like that, let me know. And also if you're like, ah, I prefer the normal episodes.

...

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