Why Economists Should Act More Like Weather Forecasters
Deep Background with Noah Feldman
Pushkin Industries
4.4 • 848 Ratings
🗓️ 19 October 2019
⏱️ 33 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
International Monetary Fund advisor Prakash Loungani explains why economists have such a terrible track record when it comes to predicting recessions. Plus, Noah reflects on the Washington Nationals heading to the World Series.
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Pushkin. |
| 0:08.7 | It's hard to read the news these days without asking yourself, how did we get here? |
| 0:13.8 | Fiasco is a history podcast for the co-creators of Slow Burn. |
| 0:17.6 | In our first season, Bush v. Gore, we examined an unmistakable turning point in American |
| 0:22.1 | politics, the 2000 election, which resulted in a high-stakes stalemate, ended with one of the most |
| 0:27.7 | controversial rulings in Supreme Court history. |
| 0:30.5 | So if you're trying to make sense at the present moment, check out Fiasco, Bush v. Gore. |
| 0:35.0 | Listen on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts. |
| 0:41.2 | From Pushkin Industries, this is Deep Background, the show where we explore the stories behind the stories in the news. |
| 0:48.4 | I'm Noah Feldman. According to a report released by the Commerce Department this week, |
| 0:53.7 | U.S. consumer spending |
| 0:54.7 | in September sunk to its lowest rate in seven months. |
| 0:59.0 | This is just the latest data point of many that seemed to suggest we may be headed for a recession. |
| 1:06.0 | Prakash Longani is an advisor at the International Monetary Fund. |
| 1:10.0 | Before that, he was an analyst at the Federal Reserve |
| 1:12.4 | Board's International Finance Division. He has spent a lot of time thinking about recessions |
| 1:17.7 | and how economists predict them or don't. Prakash, thank you so much for joining me. |
| 1:24.4 | I want to start with, as it were, recessions 101. You know, the other day my 14-year-old son |
| 1:30.7 | said to me, Dad, actually, what's the definition of recession? And I got up to my two quarters in a row of |
| 1:37.0 | negative growth of GDP, and then I had to pause. So tell us, first of all, you know, |
| 1:43.2 | what is the definition of recession that economists use? |
| 1:46.2 | And also, how did they come up with this definition? Because, you know, two quarters in a row |
... |
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