4.6 • 11K Ratings
🗓️ 29 June 2021
⏱️ 83 minutes
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0:00.0 | I'm Mr. Clan and this is the Ezra Clancho. |
0:20.1 | So one of the truly great essays in the history of economic thought is this 1930 essay by John |
0:25.2 | Maynard Keynes, economic possibilities for our grandchildren. And it's a weird essay. It's |
0:31.0 | done in the depth of the Great Depression, so everything is terrible and people are really |
0:35.2 | poor. But Keynes steps back and just imagines the future and he makes his now famous prediction |
0:41.7 | that by 2030, which was a hundred years hence, human beings would be so much richer, so much |
0:47.1 | more technologically advanced, that the problem of scarcity, that the problem that had to find |
0:52.5 | economics and arguably human civilization until then would have been solved. And now we'd only |
0:57.3 | work 15 hours a week and the whole problem would be what to do with all this time. And the |
1:02.9 | reason this essay still gets talked about and debated and written about today is it Keynes was |
1:08.1 | interestingly right and wrong. The part of this it seems hard and probably seemed very |
1:15.3 | out there when he did it. The calculations for how much richer we'd get in a hundred years, |
1:19.5 | that was not just right, if anything it was conservative. We passed his predictions for income |
1:25.5 | growth decades ago and then we got even richer than that. But you may notice we don't work 15 |
1:31.2 | hours a week. In fact, in an inversion of past history, the more money you make now, the more |
1:36.5 | hours you generally work, it used to be the point of being rich was to not work and now we've built |
1:42.2 | a social value system. So the reward for making a lot of money at work is you get to do even more |
1:48.1 | work. And so people all up and down the income scale with levels of plenty that would have been |
1:53.5 | shocking to anyone in Keynes's time are harried, burnt out, always wanting more, feeling there's |
1:59.6 | not enough. So what went wrong? What did Keynes get wrong? My guess today is the anthropologist James |
2:07.0 | Suzman and he flips his whole conversation on its head. Suzman has spent the last 30 years, |
2:12.0 | living with and studying one of the oldest enduring hunter-gatherer societies. For most of the |
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