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Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Why Bond Yields Are the True Reflation Toggle: DB - Jan13,2021

Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Real Vision

Business News, News, Investing, Business

4.11.1K Ratings

🗓️ 13 January 2021

⏱️ 21 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison joins Max Wiethe to discuss why he thinks US treasury yields—and not the dollar—is the key to the success or failure of the reflation trade. Together Ed and Max discuss the recent action in the bond market, the knock-on effects this has had for other reflation assets like precious metals, commodities, and equities, and the three discrete outcomes that Ed believes could arise in 2021 depending on the direction and speed of bond market moves. In the intro, Nick Correa provides an overview of the latest Consumer Price Index data. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

Hello everyone welcome to the Real Vision Daily Briefing my name is Max Wiete

0:15.8

I'm joined today by Ed Harrison but before I sit down with Ed let's kick it over to

0:19.6

Nick Carreyer for today's stories. Thanks Max today I'm going to provide a rundown for newly released December data for the Consumer

0:26.2

Price Index.

0:27.5

For this past December, the data shows the CPI experienced a 0.4% gain seasonally adjusted. This is on par with economist projections of a 0.4% increase in the

0:38.1

C. P. And this follows a 0.2% gain in November. The Bureau of Labor Statistics attributes this gain to an increase in the

0:45.1

gasoline index, which experienced an 8.4% gain and contributed to more than a 60% increase in

0:52.2

the overall

0:52.6

CPI. Overall demand for all grades of gasoline still is lower

0:56.6

with prices per gallon, now about 10% below

0:59.9

than they were a year ago, as virus-related restrictions are being implemented and consumers

1:04.7

are staying at home and therefore reducing their driving.

1:07.7

The cost of food is also increased 0.4%, as both groceries and eating out have gone up by 0.4%.

1:15.0

This follows 0.1% decrease in November.

1:17.8

All items, less food and energy,

1:19.8

rose about 0.1% in December.

1:22.2

For 2020 overall, CPI rose 1.4%,

1:25.7

which is less than the 2.3% increase in 2019.

1:29.4

End is the smallest December to December increase since 2015. The average rise in inflation for the past 10 years has been 1.7%.

1:37.5

If you want more on the inflation, Stephen Van Meter and Michael Ashton today did a deep dive on the subject, and the interplay between inflation, interest rates, and the dollar.

1:46.0

To flesh this out and more, let's go back to Max and Ed.

1:49.0

Thank you, Nick. Well, Ed, back again on Wednesday, glad to be here.

...

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