Why Allies Aren’t Following on Iran, With Kristi Govella and Constanze Stelzenmüller

The President’s Inbox

Council on Foreign Relations

Politics, News:politics, News

4.4 • 734 Ratings

🗓️ 25 March 2026

⏱️ 38 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

We discuss: Why U.S. allies are refusing to join the Iran war, and what that signals about weakening alliance cohesion and growing strategic independence. How the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil flows, is already reshaping the global economy and raising the stakes for every U.S. partner. Europe’s balancing act, publicly rejecting the war while quietly enabling U.S. operations through military bases. Japan’s pragmatic hedging, supporting the U.S. diplomatically while using constitutional limits to avoid direct military involvement. The cascading global risks of the conflict, from energy shocks and inflation to refugee flows and rising geopolitical instability. The long-term erosion of U.S. soft power, especially among younger generations in Europe and shifting public sentiment in Japan. Mentioned on the Episode: “Vice President JD Vance Delivers Remarks at the Munich Security Conference,” The White House “Secretary of State Marco Rubio Delivers Remarks to the Munich Security Conference,” U.S. Embassy in Switzerland and Liechtenstein “G7 Statement on Support to Partners in the Middle East,” Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/why-allies-arent-following-on-iran Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

Transcript

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0:00.0	There is no plan B for the U.S.-Japan alliance when it comes to really guarding against the security threats that Japan is most concerned about.
0:07.1	This conflict finds no quick and easy end.
0:10.0	But if it expands, if it endures, there is going to come a point, I think, when American interests will be harmed by the closure of the strait as well.
0:19.1	In this hour, with the major developments in the Middle East as the U.S. in Israeli war against Iran,
0:24.6	now entering its fourth week.
0:25.6	The Strait of Hamoos, through which one-fifth of the world's oil passes, remains closed, threatening the global economy.
0:32.6	President Donald Trump has called on U.S. allies to help reopen the strait.
0:41.8	They have largely declined, not wanting to join a war they did not start.
0:44.3	How do U.S. allies view the Iran war?
0:47.0	Can they ignore Trump's calls to join the fighting?
0:52.6	In what long-term effects will Operation Epic Fury have on U.S. relations with its allies?
0:57.5	From the Council on Foreign Relations, welcome to the President's inbox.
0:58.5	I'm Jim Lindsay.
1:05.5	Today I'm joined by Christy Gevella, Senior Advisor and Japan Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and Constanza Stetszheimer, Director of the Center on the United States in Europe,
1:12.4	and the Fritz Stern Chair in Germany and Transatlantic Relations at the Brookings Institution.
1:18.5	Christy and Constanza, thank you very much for joining me.
1:22.0	Thanks for the invitation.
1:23.3	Thanks for much.
1:23.9	I want to begin with a disclaimer.
1:26.5	This is obviously a very fluid situation.
1:29.4	Lots of things could happen between now and when the podcast goes live.
1:35.1	I'd like to begin with you, Constanza.
	...

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